Good morning. Wall Street rose for a second session overnight, and the after-hours reports then split the technology trade. Amazon rose in late trading after lifting its 2026 capital spending plan, while Apple fell after guiding to slower September-quarter growth. The economic data was softer, but long Treasury yields still rose while the Federal Reserve declines to spell out how it will respond to above-target inflation.
Japan appears to have stepped into the currency market for a second time this year, and the US dollar fell against most major currencies. Oil settled 1.4% lower, with Brent at US$89.45 a barrel, even as Iran threatened retaliation for the latest United States strikes and drone attacks closed more Russian and Kazakh export infrastructure.
Locally, futures point to the ASX 200 opening about 1.2% higher after Thursday's fall, the Australian Financial Review reported. Quarterly reporting continues today, and the June-quarter producer price index is due at 11:30am AEST.
The ASX 200 fell 0.8% to 8,968 in Thursday's session, ending a three-day advance, as traders took profits and reacted to the Federal Reserve's decision; the index remains 1.5% higher over five sessions. The Australian dollar rose 1.0% to US70.27¢.
Wall Street closed higher for a second session overnight. The S&P 500 rose 1.7% to 7,438, the Nasdaq 2.8% to 25,122 and the Dow Jones 1.2% to 52,208, with Microsoft up 15% after Wednesday's result restored confidence in the AI-linked names; the VIX fell 17.3% to 17.09. Gold rose 3.2% to US$4,163 an ounce.
The Stoxx 600 rose 0.8% to 650 overnight, taking its five-session gain to 1.7%. The DAX added 0.6% to 25,612 and the FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% to 10,897.
In the prior session, closed before the yen's rise in offshore trading, the Nikkei added 0.7% to 61,867 and remains 6.9% lower over five sessions. The Hang Seng rose 0.2% to 25,859 at Thursday's close and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.6% to 3,805.
The consumer price index rose 3.8% in the year to June against the 4.0% consensus, and 30-day interbank futures now price no change to the 4.35% cash rate at the 11 August Monetary Policy Board meeting.
Export value fell 7% to $2.3bn and volume 6% to 598 million litres in the year to June, the first year below 600 million litres since 2004; exports to mainland China, the largest market, fell 15% to $756m.
The paper reported that lenders are cutting advertised mortgage rates to compete for a shrinking pool of borrowers, with the federal budget's tax changes adding to the fall in demand.
Consumer spending, investment and exports rose while government spending fell; the Fed's preferred core PCE inflation gauge rose 3.3% in the year to June, in line with the consensus estimate and lower than the prior month.
Tokyo spent about ¥11.7tn, roughly US$70bn, supporting the currency in April and May; USD/JPY settled at 159.57, down 2.3%, and the US dollar index fell 0.8% to 100.01. The Bank of Japan meets today.
The New York Times reported that bond investors are demanding a higher premium to hold long-dated debt while chair Kevin Warsh declines to give guidance on the path of policy.
The Bank said the short-run path of inflation is uncertain owing to volatile energy prices, with the risks to energy prices on the upside because of the Middle East conflict and low European gas stocks.
The firm raised US$7.6bn in the June quarter against US$12.1bn a year earlier, with credit-fund inflows falling to US$1.8bn from US$5.8bn; credit assets under management edged lower as withdrawals offset new money.
The New York Times reported the leadership signalled only cautious support for the economy at its mid-year meeting, disappointing calls for direct stimulus to households.
The plan, announced on Thursday, adds public money to a European data-centre build-out that has so far lagged the American one.
Reuters reported the Ryazan plant, one of Russia's largest, could be shut for two weeks; the run of attacks on refineries has kept European fuel prices near record highs.
Revenue fell 8.5% to C$356.9m and EBITDA of C$33m was below the company's expectations because of one-off items and sales of 3.3 million tonnes against production of 3.9 million; the C3 freight index it pays rose 37% quarter on quarter to about US$34 a tonne because of Middle East shipping disruptions.
Quarterly revenue rose 31% quarter on quarter to $743m against a $691.5m consensus estimate, and the company ended the year with net cash of $1.34bn after issuing US$600m of senior unsecured notes.
The May judgment awarded $150m for cultural loss plus $136,757 for economic loss over mining on Yindjibarndi land without an agreement; the corporation had sought about $1bn for cultural damage alone and has until 26 August to lodge the appeal.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has stepped in to settle terms between the federal and NSW governments after months of negotiation; the smelter is Australia's largest and employs about 1,000 people.
The Sydney Morning Herald reported the company expects the disruption to lift fuel prices just as the federal fuel excise discount ends.
June-quarter revenue rose 20% to US$200.6bn, AWS revenue rose about 37% to US$42.2bn, its fastest growth since 2021 and ahead of consensus, and quarterly capital spending of US$54.2bn exceeded the US$49.4bn StreetAccount consensus.
iPhone revenue rose 22% to US$54.25bn against a US$53.86bn consensus, net income rose 27% to US$29.8bn, or US$2.02 a share, and services revenue fell short of forecasts.
The price is a 33% premium to MarketAxess's Wednesday close; ICE is funding the deal with new debt, targets US$100m of cost savings, and gains an institutional credit-trading network of about 2,100 firms to pair with its fixed income data and index business.
Assets at Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund have fallen to about US$10bn from a peak near US$45bn, Bloomberg reported; the firm keeps its Anthropic stake, worth about US$5bn, and will continue as a private investment firm.
The quarter was the firm's largest ever for asset sales, and assets under management rose 16% to US$796bn, with US$34bn of new capital raised.
Higher oil and gas prices during the Middle East war carried the result, and the company announced a further US$3bn buyback, its 19th consecutive quarter at or above that level.
Backlog reached a record US$12.1bn, up 70% on a year earlier, with about US$6bn scheduled for 2027 and beyond; the read-through runs to the data-centre construction chain.
Second-quarter adjusted earnings of US$1.13 a share were US$0.21 higher than a year earlier and US$0.13 above the company's own estimate; its pipeline of prospective large industrial and data-centre projects exceeds 75 gigawatts.
“Global conditions look to be more uncertain and inflationary, while domestic conditions are on balance more benign as regards the prospects for inflation.”
“If you really want to get to 2%, I think you have to raise interest rates.”
“We're seeing some very significant constraints currently with limited flexibility in the supply chain to remedy it.”
“We are certainly seeing strength in data centers, but also broad-based growth across the majority of our key verticals.”
“Year to date, weather-normal retail electricity sales were 2.3% higher than the first half of 2025 ... This represents the highest retail sales growth through June we have seen in nearly two decades.”
“A stranger who has come from thousands of kilometres away will not be allowed to interfere.”
For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.