Good morning. US consumer prices rose 3.5 per cent in the year to June, down from 4.2 per cent in May and below the 3.8 per cent economists expected, the largest monthly step-down since 2020 as energy prices fell during the brief lull in the US-Iran conflict. The soft print pushed the US dollar down 0.4 per cent, with the DXY at 100.92, and eased the case for a further Federal Reserve rate rise. The S&P 500 closed up 0.4 per cent at 7,544 and the Nasdaq rose 0.9 per cent to 26,107, though the Dow ended flat at 52,508 as IBM fell about 25 per cent, its worst day on record. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped 2 basis points to 4.58 per cent, gold rose 1.5 per cent to US$4,058 and bitcoin gained 3.8 per cent to US$64,580.
The four largest US banks and Wells Fargo reported a record quarter. JPMorgan posted net income of US$16.9bn and Goldman Sachs record revenue of US$20.3bn, both lifted by a surge in trading and investment-banking fees and the wave of AI-related capital raising. Brent crude rose 2.4 per cent to US$85.34 a barrel, after touching about US$87 during the session, as the United States resumed its naval blockade of Iranian ports and struck Iranian targets. President Trump proposed a 20 per cent fee on cargo crossing the Strait of Hormuz, then abandoned it within a day after lobbying from Gulf states.
Locally, the ASX 200 closed the prior session unchanged at 8,808, and the Australian dollar rose 0.8 per cent to US69.76 cents as the US dollar fell. The cash rate remains at 4.35 per cent, with 30-day interbank futures still pricing no cut before 2027. Median realised pay for the chief executives of Australia's 100 largest companies rose 16 per cent to $4.8m in the 2025 financial year, the Australian Council of Superannuation Investors reported.
The ASX 200 closed the prior session unchanged at 8,808, holding a 0.1 per cent gain over five days, with energy producers and precious-metals miners supported by the overnight oil surge. The Australian dollar rose 0.8 per cent to US69.76 cents as the US dollar softened after the soft US inflation print. The 10-year Australian government bond yield is at 4.89 per cent, up 6 basis points on the day and 63 over the past year, and the benchmark iron ore price eased 0.4 per cent to US$98.31 a tonne.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4 per cent to 7,544 and the Nasdaq 0.9 per cent to 26,107, led by chipmakers, while the Dow finished flat at 52,508 after IBM fell about 25 per cent. Consumer prices rose 3.5 per cent in the year to June, below the 3.8 per cent consensus, sending the US dollar index down 0.4 per cent to 100.92. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.58 per cent and the 2-year sat at 4.26 per cent. Gold rose 1.5 per cent to US$4,058 and the VIX fell 3.8 per cent to 16.50.
The Stoxx 600 edged up 0.2 per cent to 642, the FTSE 100 rose 0.3 per cent to 10,529 and the DAX added 0.1 per cent to 25,147. The UK 10-year gilt yield briefly rose above 5 per cent, its highest since May, as the jump in oil lifted inflation expectations. The European Commission signalled it would propose easing bank capital requirements, following similar moves in the United States and Britain.
The Nikkei 225 rose 0.7 per cent to 67,744, the Hang Seng 0.5 per cent to 24,341 and the Shanghai Composite 1.4 per cent to 3,967. China's June exports rose 27 per cent from a year earlier and imports 36 per cent, a large upside surprise driven by demand tied to AI infrastructure. China's crude oil imports fell about 41 per cent to near a 10-year low as the conflict with Iran disrupted supply.
The 10-year Australian government bond yield rose 6 basis points to 4.89 per cent, up 63 basis points over the past year.
The dollar is up 6.6 per cent over the past year, and the US dollar index fell 0.4 per cent to 100.92.
A surge in gas-turbine prices, driven by demand from US data centres, has lifted the cost of building gas plants.
The regulator is seeking to wind up the company and freeze its assets.
The shift adds to scrutiny of the sector's exposure to less liquid, higher-risk debt.
The action follows a pattern of tighter foreign-investment scrutiny over critical-minerals assets.
It is 1.7 per cent higher over the past year.
The falls extend a cooling in the market that began earlier in the year.
It was the largest monthly step-down since 2020, driven by falling energy prices; the US dollar index fell 0.4 per cent and futures pared bets on a further Fed rate rise.
Warsh has set up five task forces to review the Fed's operations, including its post-2008 ample-reserves balance-sheet framework.
President Trump proposed a 20 per cent fee on cargo crossing the Strait of Hormuz, then dropped it within a day after Gulf states lobbied against it; Brent is up 15.1 per cent over five sessions.
The trade surplus came in well above consensus, cushioning the yuan.
Refinery run rates also dropped to their lowest in about a decade.
The move came days before Andy Burnham is expected to become prime minister.
The shift would loosen post-crisis rules on how much capital lenders must hold.
It remains 2.1 per cent lower over five sessions.
It was the strongest reading in several months.
The advance kept the industrial metal near the top of its recent range.
The project is backed by the Australian, Japanese and US governments and would add a source of the critical mineral outside China.
Half of the ASX's highest-paid chief executives run US-domiciled companies, including ResMed and News Corporation, and median realised pay across the top 100 rose 16 per cent to $4.8m.
The comments come as several large funds face scrutiny over their move into private and corporate credit.
The telco restored its network last week and the Australian Communications and Media Authority has an open investigation into the disruption.
The company lodged the effective notice with the ASX, clearing the way for implementation.
The deal extends the private-equity firm's push into Australian consumer-services businesses.
The move marks a rare incursion into a market long dominated by Ticketek and Ticketmaster.
The clearance lets the company begin a US trial in children.
The arrangement lets the company process ore without building its own plant.
The former diamond mine would give the lithium explorer existing infrastructure to develop.
The adventure-tourism operator is weighing options for the division.
The move places the WA-focused energy company's future in the hands of external administrators.
The debate sits alongside the ACSI finding that top-100 CEO pay rose 16 per cent in the 2025 financial year.
Investment-banking fees rose 30 per cent and equities-trading revenue 86 per cent, and the board intends to lift the quarterly dividend to US$1.65 a share.
It kept the top spot in M&A advisory as large-cap deal volumes rose 90 per cent in the first half, raised the quarterly dividend 25 per cent to US$5 a share and bought back US$4bn of stock.
Investment-banking revenue rose 44 per cent and markets revenue 17 per cent, and the bank is running a US$30bn buyback and plans a 12 per cent dividend increase.
Investment-banking fees rose 50 per cent to more than US$2.1bn and sales and trading revenue 33 per cent to US$7.2bn, for a 17 per cent return on tangible common equity.
Net interest income rose 5 per cent and fee income 13 per cent, and the bank expects to raise its third-quarter dividend 11 per cent to US$0.50 a share.
Chief executive Arvind Krishna said the business faltered as clients shifted spending toward AI servers and storage, and the drop held the Dow to a flat close.
It would mark the company's first move into consumer hardware.
The suit claims workers on approved medical leave were discriminated against in the process.
Buffett has pledged to give away the bulk of his fortune, most of it in Berkshire stock.
The round underscores continued investor appetite for AI applied to biology.
The support is aimed at first-of-a-kind chip facilities to build European capacity.
The action reflects a more active role for state attorneys-general in antitrust enforcement.
The reduction is part of a push to restore financial discipline at the oil major.
The Anglo American unit's mine employs more than 4,000 people.
Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund is the electric-vehicle maker's majority owner.
Rising memory prices tied to AI demand are squeezing device makers.
“The rate-setting committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.”
“The June inflation data was surprisingly benign, though we should not overreact to a single month.”
“The AI investment cycle is expanding capital needs beyond core technology into infrastructure, energy and data centres, generating a ripple effect across industries.”
“The US economy has proved more durable than expected, supported by the strong consumer, ongoing AI-driven investments and easing energy costs, though inflation and tighter monetary policy remain key risks.”
“The conflict in the Middle East has weighed a bit on global growth, whilst giving inflation a second wind.”
“The pipeline is actually quite robust, and it feels a little as if the high-profile nature of the activity this quarter and the generally robust environment is itself begetting more activity.”
For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.