Good morning. The assets that had run hardest pulled back overnight, even as the big US indices held roughly flat. The S&P 500 eased 0.1% to 7,358 and the Nasdaq fell 0.4%, but the selling was heavier elsewhere: gold dropped 2.7% to US$4,016, copper fell 2.5%, Brent crude lost 5.1% to US$73.18, and bitcoin slipped to a 20-month low near US$60,600. The chip-led nerves that drove an 8% two-day fall in the US semiconductor index carried into Asia, where the Nikkei closed down 3.5% and the Hang Seng lost 1.8%.
The clearest counterpoint came after the US close, when Micron reported record fiscal third-quarter results, with net profit up nearly 1,400% on a year earlier on surging demand for AI memory, and its shares rose in after-hours trading. Earlier, the largest US banks cleared the Federal Reserve's annual stress test, which estimated they would lose about US$700bn in a severe downturn yet stay above their minimums; JPMorgan announced a US$50bn buyback and Goldman Sachs lifted its dividend. Treasuries were steady, the two-year yield down 8 basis points to 4.16% and the 10-year off 1 basis point to 4.50%.
Locally, the ASX 200 closed its most recent session down 0.3% at 8,787, leaving it 1.5% lower over five days. Iron ore is holding at US$100.53 a tonne, which keeps the major miners steady, while the Australian dollar slipped to US69.04 cents as the US dollar firmed. May labour force figures are due from the ABS at 11:30am AEST, the main domestic event today, after unemployment reached 4.5% in April. Core US inflation for May lands tonight, alongside speeches from three Fed officials.
The yield is up 52 basis points over the past year, and markets continue to weigh the timing of the next move against slowing growth.
Unemployment was 4.5% in April, the highest since 2021; a further rise would firm the case for an RBA cut.
The US dollar index firmed 0.1% to 101.55 on the higher-for-longer US rates outlook.
The euro fell to a one-year low as cheaper oil eased pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising rates.
Core PCE inflation for May is due tonight, with speeches from Fed officials Bowman, Williams and Goolsbee.
The inquiry opens a new front in private-markets oversight, separate from ASIC's local push on private-credit valuations.
A price near US$100 underpins the index heavyweights BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue, which together drive much of the ASX 200's direction.
Cheaper oil pressures the local energy producers Woodside and Santos, while lowering input costs across the broader market.
The move weighs on the listed gold producers Northern Star and Evolution Mining, extending bullion's pullback from its February peak.
Steady rates keep the major banks Commonwealth Bank, NAB, Westpac and ANZ central to index returns, with the Australian dollar at US69.04 cents.
Demand for high-bandwidth memory used in AI servers drove the result, and the company's shares rose in after-hours trading.
The Fed estimated the largest US banks would lose about US$700bn in a hypothetical severe downturn but all stayed above their capital minimums.
The pass marks let the major US banks return more capital, with buybacks and dividend rises announced across the group.
The claim, set out in a letter seen by Reuters, adds to tensions over AI-model intellectual property between US and Chinese developers.
The media group is contesting regulatory pressure on its broadcast operations.
“Our record fiscal third-quarter results and even stronger outlook for the fiscal fourth quarter reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era.”
“We launched Wise, our AI-powered intelligence engine, now powering approximately 600 AI features and agents, moving beyond insights and assistance to autonomous execution with human oversight.”
“Building a diversified alternatives and private markets business remains a strategic imperative and is key to the long-term success of AGF. New Holland's total AUM is up 44% since our initial investment in 2024, reaching C$11 billion.”
“Our Canadian retail mutual funds delivered an eighth consecutive quarter of positive net sales, with continued strong flows into our ETFs and SMAs as retail clients access our capabilities through different vehicles.”
“Our fortress balance sheet, with significant excess capital and robust liquidity, allows us to be a pillar of strength for our clients and communities.”
“With the gold price currently over US$4,000 an ounce, our project's post-tax net present value is over US$50 billion at a zero discount rate, or about US$20 billion at a 5% discount rate.”
For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.