Starting Point
Tuesday, 7 July 2026
as of 7:15am AEST
Markets at a glance
as of Tuesday, 7 July 2026, 7:15am AEST
S&P 500
7,537
+0.7%
ASX 200
8,844
+1.4%
US 10y
4.48%
-1 bp
AUD/USD
0.6960
+0.3%
Brent
$71.99
+0.3%
Bitcoin
$64,251
+1.1%
Comment

Good morning. Wall Street opened the week higher, led by technology. The Nasdaq rose 1.1 per cent to a record 26,121 and the S&P 500 added 0.7 per cent to 7,537, as investors positioned for the first wave of second-quarter earnings and another run of tests for the AI trade. Treasury yields were little changed, the 10-year down 1 basis point to 4.48 per cent and the 2-year off 3 basis points to 4.14 per cent, and the US dollar held with the DXY at 100.87, as bets on a near-term Federal Reserve rate rise faded. Fed governor Christopher Waller, backing new chair Kevin Warsh, argued the central bank should rethink how it guides markets on the path of rates.

Oil steadied near four-month lows. Brent rose 0.3 per cent to US$71.99 a barrel and WTI eased 0.1 per cent to US$68.60, after Saudi Arabia cut its August selling price to Asian buyers by the most in more than two decades and OPEC and its allies agreed a fifth straight monthly output increase of 188,000 barrels a day. Gold rose 1.5 per cent to US$4,176 an ounce and copper gained 2.2 per cent to US$13,781. Among companies, Microsoft cut 4,800 jobs and restructured its Xbox division, Toyota committed US$3.6bn to expand its Texas plant and shift Tacoma truck production from Mexico, and Comcast's Sky agreed to buy British broadcaster ITV for about US$2.1bn.

Closer to home, the ASX 200 last closed at a record 8,844 and money markets continue to price no RBA cut before 2027, with the cash rate at 4.35 per cent and the 10-year government bond yield at 4.80 per cent, up 68 basis points over the past year. The Australian dollar rose 0.3 per cent to US69.60 cents, a third straight gain, as the greenback softened. The local corporate calendar was quiet, with South32's Hermosa critical-minerals project in Arizona due to receive its final US federal decision today. The main scheduled release is the US May trade balance tonight.

Macro
Australia

Labor removed income limits and lifted price caps in October, taking Sydney's cap to $1.5m from $900,000; economists warn the uncapped support risks adding to prices even as the housing market cools.

The Aussie is up 1.1 per cent over five sessions and 6.2 per cent over the past year; the DXY sits at 100.87, down 0.5 per cent over the week.

Investor groups say the change would tax foreign renewable investment more heavily than in comparable advanced economies, at a time the sector is competing for capital.

Global

Markets have pared bets on a near-term rate rise; the 2-year Treasury yield eased 3 basis points to 4.14 per cent and the 10-year 1 basis point to 4.48 per cent.

Brent settled at US$71.99 a barrel, flat over five sessions but up 5.4 per cent over the year, while China stepped up Middle East purchases as Saudi pricing fell to a six-year low.

Pension funds, insurers and sovereign funds kept allocating through recent volatility, while regulators including Australia's ASIC press managers on valuations and disclosure.

Companies
Australia

Hermosa was the first mine admitted to the US FAST-41 fast-track permitting program; South32 has approved about US$2.2bn for its Taylor deposit, the largest mining investment in the state of Arizona.

Global

About 1,600 of the cuts fall in Xbox now, with reductions expected to reach roughly 3,200, or about a fifth of the unit, this fiscal year, as gaming margins are squeezed by a hardware downturn.

The expansion adds a second assembly line and about 2,000 jobs, lifting annual capacity from roughly 200,000 to 350,000 vehicles by 2030, part of a wider US manufacturing push under tariff pressure.

The purchase is intended to help Sky compete with streaming rivals, and follows Comcast's plan to spin off NBCUniversal and Sky into a separate media company.

It joins JPMorgan, UBS, ICBC and HSBC as the first new clearing member in a decade, expanding its precious-metals business as gold trades near records at US$4,176 an ounce.

Quotes of the day
Macro

“Forward guidance can be a valuable tool that has, at times, significantly strengthened policymaking. But forward guidance is more art than science, and there have been times when it has hindered, rather than helped, policymaking.”

Christopher Waller, governor, US Federal Reserve
speech, 6 July
Regulation

“Some of the practices we have seen are rather unattractive and close to being illegal. I really want the sector to get the message: lift your game, or you're going to be hearing from us more and more.”

Joe Longo, chair, ASIC
on private credit funds
Geopolitics

“We have moved into the air sphere, and we are already competitive in the air.”

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, president of Ukraine
Financial Times interview
Industry outlook

“Our business today is not healthy. History is full of companies that mistake longevity for inevitability. We will not be one of them.”

Asha Sharma, chief executive of Microsoft's Xbox
staff memo on the Xbox restructuring
Supply chain

“Toyota's continued investment in North America is a testament to our confidence in the region's workforce, innovation and long-term growth potential.”

Ted Ogawa, chief executive, Toyota Motor North America
on the US$3.6bn Texas plant expansion
Consumer

“We're pleased to see growth once again in our total customer count, with disproportionate growth coming from higher-income households.”

Todd Vasos, chief executive, Dollar General
on the company's latest earnings call
Markets in detail
as of Tuesday, 7 July 2026, 7:15am AEST · levels at each market's last close
Level As of 1d 5d 12mo
Equities
S&P 500 7,537 6 Jul +0.7% +2.5% +20.0%
Nasdaq 26,121 6 Jul +1.1% +3.3% +26.8%
ASX 200 (prior) 8,844 3 Jul +1.4% +0.9% +2.9%
Stoxx 600 650 6 Jul -0.3% +2.3% +20.2%
Nikkei 225 69,744 3 Jul +1.5% +0.6% +75.3%
Hang Seng 23,350 3 Jul +1.3% +1.2% -3.0%
Rates
US 10y 4.48% 6 Jul -1 bp +11 bp +13 bp
US 2y 4.14% 2 Jul -3 bp +5 bp +36 bp
ACGB 10y 4.80% 1 Jul +6 bp +3 bp +68 bp
RBA cash 4.35% 3 Jul +50 bp
FX
AUD/USD 0.6960 6 Jul +0.3% +1.1% +6.2%
DXY 100.87 6 Jul -0.5% +3.8%
USD/JPY 162.05 6 Jul +0.4% +0.1% +12.1%
EUR/USD 1.1446 6 Jul +0.1% +0.2% -2.8%
Commodities
Brent $71.99 6 Jul +0.3% +5.4%
WTI $68.60 6 Jul -0.1% -0.9% +3.2%
Gold $4,176 6 Jul +1.5% +2.4% +25.3%
Iron ore 62% $98.25 2 Jul -0.1% -2.1% +3.3%
Copper $13,781 6 Jul +2.2% +1.8% +24.6%
Crypto
Bitcoin $64,251 6 Jul +1.1% +7.1% -41.2%
Ethereum $1,817 6 Jul +1.9% +12.9% -29.3%
Calendar
Australia No major economic releases scheduled. The RBA cash rate stands at 4.35 per cent.
United States May trade balance, imports and exports (10:30pm AEST); API crude oil inventories (6:30am AEST Wednesday).
Earnings The first wave of second-quarter earnings begins this week. Tuesday's reporters are mostly smaller European and Japanese names, including Sweden's Kinnevik and US industrial Enerpac.
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For wholesale clients only

For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.