Starting Point
Saturday, 18 July 2026
as of 7:15am AEST
Markets at a glance
as of Saturday, 18 July 2026, 7:15am AEST
S&P 500
7,458
-1.0%
ASX 200
8,797
-0.5%
US 10y
4.54%
-3 bp
AUD/USD
0.6985
-0.2%
Brent
$88.09
+4.6%
Bitcoin
$64,142
+0.6%
Comment

Good morning. Wall Street fell for a second session as the AI trade wobbled. The S&P 500 lost 1.0 per cent to 7,458 and the Nasdaq 1.4 per cent to 25,520, with chipmakers leading the retreat after China's Moonshot AI unveiled Kimi K3, a model it says rivals the largest US systems. The VIX rose 12.2 per cent to 18.77, and Apple briefly passed Nvidia as the world's most valuable company as Nvidia fell. Treasuries were mixed, the 10-year down 3 basis points to 4.54 per cent and the 2-year up 3 to 4.16 per cent, while the US dollar held, the DXY at 100.75.

Oil was the other overnight story. Brent rose 4.6 per cent to US$88.09 and WTI 3.6 per cent to US$81.77, up more than 12 per cent over the week, as US-Iran clashes disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold rose 0.9 per cent to US$4,023. The oil surge revived bets on a Federal Reserve rate rise: Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan called for modestly higher rates and vice chair Philip Jefferson said energy-driven inflation could force the Fed's hand, with futures now pricing about a 73 per cent chance of a rise by December.

The selling ran through Asia, where the Nikkei fell 4.0 per cent to 64,141 and SoftBank dropped about 9 per cent. The ASX 200 closed the prior session down 0.5 per cent at 8,797, with the miners off 2.9 per cent. In local corporate news, Perpetual rejected a revised, sweetened takeover proposal from a vehicle backed by Sweden's EQT, and Coles walked away from a roughly $4 billion move on pet-care group Greencross.

Markets by region
Australia

The ASX 200 closed the prior session down 0.5 per cent at 8,797, ending the week little changed. Materials fell 2.9 per cent, their weakest session in nearly a month, with BHP down 2.7 per cent and Rio Tinto 2.4 per cent, and the gold miners off as much as 4.3 per cent as bullion slipped from recent highs. Energy rose about 1.5 per cent on the oil spike, while the banks and consumer staples held up. The Australian dollar was at US69.85 cents, down 0.2 per cent, and the 10-year bond yield was 4.91 per cent.

United States

The S&P 500 fell 1.0 per cent to 7,458, the Nasdaq 1.4 per cent to 25,520 and the Dow 0.8 per cent to 52,146, as a chip-led selloff extended into a second day. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index headed for its worst week since March after China's Moonshot AI released a new model, and the VIX rose 12.2 per cent to 18.77. The 10-year Treasury yield eased 3 basis points to 4.54 per cent, the US dollar held at 100.75 on the DXY, and Brent rose 4.6 per cent to US$88.09.

Europe

The Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.3 per cent to 642 and Germany's DAX 0.3 per cent to 24,831, while London's FTSE 100 rose 0.3 per cent to 10,600, helped by its heavy weighting in oil majors. Shell, BP and TotalEnergies gained between 1.8 and 2.7 per cent as crude jumped on the Middle East escalation.

Reuters
Asia

Japan's Nikkei 225 sank 4.0 per cent to 64,141, having fallen more than 6 per cent intraday, as chip and AI names tracked Wall Street lower and SoftBank dropped about 9 per cent. China's Shanghai Composite fell 3.0 per cent to 3,764 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 1.8 per cent to 24,562. The yen was little changed at 162.35 per US dollar.

Macro
Australia
Australian money markets continue to price no cut in the 4.35 per cent cash rate before 2027, on 30-day interbank futures.

The Reserve Bank's next board meeting is on 11 August; Westpac forecasts a rise as soon as that meeting, while Commonwealth Bank, NAB and ANZ expect the cash rate on hold through 2026 with cuts not starting until 2027.

AFR
Iron ore held near US$99 a tonne, at US$98.81 and down 0.1 per cent, even as the ASX materials sector fell 2.9 per cent to lead the local market lower.

The mining fall tracked the global risk-off move rather than the steel-making raw material, which is up 1.8 per cent over the past year.

arcpoint markets data
The 10-year Australian government bond yield was 4.91 per cent and the Australian dollar bought US69.85 cents.

The bond yield is up 53 basis points over the past year, and the currency is up 0.6 per cent over five sessions and 7.5 per cent over 12 months as the US dollar has softened.

arcpoint markets data
Gold slipped from recent highs, weighing on the local producers, with Evolution Mining and Northern Star both down about 3.6 per cent on Friday.

Gold was at US$4,023 an ounce, up 0.9 per cent overnight but down 2.0 per cent over five sessions as rising US rate-hike bets lifted the appeal of yield.

arcpoint markets data
Copper eased 0.4 per cent to US$13,825 a tonne as risk appetite faded.

The metal still holds a 14.3 per cent gain over the past year.

arcpoint markets data

The work targets better data on private credit funds and stronger practices by superannuation trustees, as non-bank lending keeps growing; the superannuation pool stood at $4.5 trillion in December, about 160 per cent of GDP.

Global

The 2-year Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.16 per cent while the 10-year fell 3 to 4.54 per cent, flattening the curve; Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan called for modestly higher rates and vice chair Philip Jefferson flagged energy-driven inflation as a critical risk.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply and a tanker was hit by a projectile off Oman as US-Iran hostilities escalated; Iran said it struck US targets across several Gulf states.

That was roughly 47 per cent more than a year earlier, with around US$300 billion expected across the year, and investor appetite is thinning: the ratio of orders to bonds on offer has fallen from near 5 times in February to below 2 times in July.

The metal was caught between the Iran war premium in oil and rising US rate-hike bets, which lift the appeal of yield-bearing assets over non-yielding bullion.

Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX, rose 12.2 per cent to 18.77.

The index is up 24.9 per cent over five sessions as the AI-led selloff spread across equity markets.

arcpoint markets data
Bitcoin held up through the equity selloff, rising 0.6 per cent to US$64,142.

Ethereum eased 1.0 per cent to US$1,845; both remain well below their levels of a year ago.

arcpoint markets data

Separately, Western oil companies signed dozens of agreements in Iraq as the OPEC member seeks to diversify how it reaches global markets.

The Japanese yen sat at 162.35 per US dollar, where verbal intervention by Tokyo failed to move it, according to Scotiabank.

Companies
Australia

The revised terms valued Perpetual at about A$2.5 billion, or A$22.07 a share; the board said the proposal was highly conditional and did not adequately represent fair value.

The move, pursued with TPG Capital, was valued at about $4 billion and would have added Greencross's 240 stores and more than 200 vet clinics; Coles shares rose close to 5 per cent on Friday.

The miner guided to 360,000 to 400,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,990 to A$3,390 an ounce, with Duketon at 240,000 to 270,000 ounces and its 30 per cent share of Tropicana 120,000 to 130,000 ounces.

The company committed A$34 million in FY27 to about 123 kilometres of drilling and studies, and said the open pit had identified 24 per cent more metal over the six months to March than its reserve model implied.

Mission is due up to US$292 million in upfront, development and commercial milestones plus tiered royalties; Dimerix said the deal was non-dilutive, with first-patient dosing expected in the first half of 2027.

The announcement confirmed the scheme's implementation alongside board and management changes and the issue of new capital.

The deal sets the commercial pathway for the company's Spontan product in the US market.

The company separately proposed a change of company name and a share consolidation, to be put to a general meeting.

The investment brings a strategic partner onto the register of the copper and zinc developer.

The agreement commercialises the company's water-treatment technology at the Broken Hill operation.

The dealership group flagged the remediation issue in a filing to the market.

The alumina and aluminium producer's result covers items 2.02 and 9.01, the earnings-release disclosure.

Global

Anthropic proposed the arrangement in June; it would be smaller than the roughly US$45 billion, three-year compute deal Anthropic struck with SpaceX in May, and would help Meta turn data-centre spending into revenue.

Oracle expects fiscal 2027 capital expenditure of up to US$95 billion; across the sector, the five largest cloud and AI firms sold about US$159 billion of bonds in the first five months of 2026, up 47 per cent on a year earlier.

Volvo Group reported second-quarter adjusted operating income of SEK14.8 billion with the margin expanding to 11.7 per cent.

Group truck order intake rose 33 per cent year on year and the company nudged up its 2026 forecast for the European truck market to 315,000 units, while flagging a needed delivery catch-up in North America.

Volvo Group Q2 2026 press conference
Saab reported second-quarter order intake above SEK68 billion and a record order backlog of SEK318 billion.

The quarter was dominated by contracts for three submarines for Poland and a first batch of 16 Gripen E fighters for Ukraine, with organic sales growth of almost 30 per cent.

Saab Q2 2026 earnings call
Swedbank posted second-quarter profit of SEK7.2 billion and settled a long-running matter with the New York State Department of Financial Services.

Return on equity was 15.5 per cent excluding restructuring costs; the bank will pay US$50 million to the DFS over disclosure failures in 2016 and 2018, concluding investigations into its historical shortcomings.

Swedbank Q2 2026 results
Taiwan Semiconductor reported record second-quarter net profit of NT$706.6 billion, up 77.4 per cent, on AI-related demand.

Gross margin reached 68 per cent and high-performance computing made up 66 per cent of revenue, though the shares fell about 7 per cent on Friday in the broader chip selloff.

Reuters

US investigators have turned to farms in Mexico as the source of the outbreak, according to reporting on a company document.

The revised approach lifts the terms for the intellectual-property investment firm.

The luxury carmaker confirmed the discussions after a report it was seeking to raise capital.

Getinge reported second-quarter organic net sales growth of 4.6 per cent and an adjusted EBITA margin of 17.6 per cent.

The result included a US$36 million refund of US tariffs paid under the IEEPA, and the Swedish medical-technology group reiterated full-year organic growth guidance of 3 to 5 per cent.

Getinge Q2 2026 results

The US health insurer disclosed the breach in a regulatory filing.

Swedish property portal Hemnet reported second-quarter net sales down 23 per cent to SEK372 million.

The fall reflected a revenue-recognition timing shift from its Sell First, Pay Later rollout and lower listing volumes, while average revenue per listing rose 12.4 per cent.

Hemnet Q2 2026 results call
Quotes of the day
Macro

“I currently believe modestly higher interest rates would better balance the outlook and risks for the FOMC's dual mandate goals.”

Lorie Logan, president, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Prepared remarks, Houston
Inflation

“The question of whether the recent increase in energy prices will feed into longer-term inflation expectations and result in a persistent rise in inflation is a critical one.”

Philip Jefferson, vice chair, US Federal Reserve
Speech, 17 July
AI / supply chain

“An impressive 21 per cent of Volvo Penta's order book value now is related to data centre build-out.”

Martin Lundstedt, chief executive, Volvo Group
Volvo Group Q2 2026 press conference
Industry outlook

“What we definitely need to see continue, though, is hyperscalers' capex.”

Seema Shah, chief global strategist, Principal Asset Management
To Yahoo Finance
Geopolitics

“What's been defining the quarter was the major contracts that we have received on the submarines in Poland and also the Gripen E version contract with Ukraine.”

Micael Johansson, chief executive, Saab
Saab Q2 2026 earnings call
Consumer

“Our proactive work contributed to high activity in the mortgage business during the quarter.”

Jens Henriksson, chief executive, Swedbank
Swedbank Q2 2026 results
Markets in detail
as of Saturday, 18 July 2026, 7:15am AEST · levels at each market's last close
Level As of 1d 5d 12mo
Equities
S&P 500 7,458 17 Jul -1.0% -1.6% +18.4%
Nasdaq 25,520 17 Jul -1.4% -2.9% +22.2%
ASX 200 (prior) 8,797 17 Jul -0.5% -0.1% +1.8%
Stoxx 600 642 17 Jul -0.3% +0.1% +17.3%
Nikkei 225 64,141 17 Jul -4.0% -6.4% +60.7%
Hang Seng 24,562 17 Jul -1.8% +1.6% +0.3%
Dow Jones 52,146 17 Jul -0.8% -0.9% +17.2%
FTSE 100 10,600 17 Jul +0.3% +1.0% +18.1%
DAX 24,831 17 Jul -0.3% -0.9% +1.9%
Shanghai Comp 3,764 17 Jul -3.0% -5.8% +7.0%
VIX 18.77 17 Jul +12.2% +24.9% +13.6%
Rates
US 10y 4.54% 17 Jul -3 bp -3 bp +8 bp
US 2y 4.16% 16 Jul +3 bp +28 bp
ACGB 10y 4.91% 15 Jul -1 bp +2 bp +53 bp
RBA cash 4.35% 16 Jul +50 bp
FX
AUD/USD 0.6985 17 Jul -0.2% +0.6% +7.5%
DXY 100.75 17 Jul -0.2% +2.1%
USD/JPY 162.35 17 Jul +0.3% +9.4%
EUR/USD 1.1446 17 Jul +0.4% -1.5%
Commodities
Brent $88.09 17 Jul +4.6% +15.9% +26.7%
WTI $81.77 17 Jul +3.6% +14.5% +21.1%
Gold $4,023 17 Jul +0.9% -2.0% +20.4%
Iron ore 62% $98.81 16 Jul -0.1% +0.2% +1.8%
Copper $13,825 17 Jul -0.4% +0.6% +14.3%
Crypto
Bitcoin $64,142 17 Jul +0.6% +0.6% -46.2%
Ethereum $1,845 17 Jul -1.0% +2.1% -46.9%
Calendar
Australia No major economic data scheduled over the weekend. The Reserve Bank's next Monetary Policy Board meeting is on 11 August.
United States No scheduled data releases over the weekend, with attention on the next Federal Reserve meeting late in July.
Earnings India's largest lenders report, including HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, Yes Bank and Punjab National Bank, alongside JK Cement.
Seasoned judgement. Active navigation.
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For wholesale clients only

For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.