Good morning. The S&P 500 closed the overnight session unchanged at 7,412 and the Nasdaq fell 0.6 per cent to 24,976, while the Dow Jones added 0.5 per cent to 51,947. Brent crude fell 2.3 per cent to US$98.38 a barrel, back below US$100 after CNBC reported Pakistan is pushing for new United States and Iran talks with China's backing, though Brent is still up 11.7 per cent over five sessions. The US 10-year Treasury yield eased 2 basis points to 4.68 per cent and the 2-year rose 6 basis points to 4.37 per cent. The US dollar index was unchanged at 101.47 and gold rose 0.2 per cent to US$4,056 an ounce.
Two policy events sat behind the session. President Trump's Section 301 tariffs of 10 to 12.5 per cent took effect across more than 80 trading partners, including Australia, and he said he would open a further 301 investigation into the European Union over its 890 million euro fine on Google. The data ran the other way: the S&P Global flash United States composite PMI rose to 53.6 in July from 51.9, an eight-month high, and the euro-zone composite returned to growth at 51.9 from 50.0 against a 50.3 consensus. European equities took the stronger reading, with the DAX up 1.4 per cent, the FTSE 100 up 0.9 per cent and the Stoxx 600 up 0.8 per cent. Intel fell almost 8 per cent despite a second-quarter revenue beat, after lifting its 2026 capital spending plan above US$20 billion.
Locally, the ASX 200 finished Friday's session down 0.8 per cent at 8,772, with WiseTech Global, Xero and Codan each off more than 4 per cent and BHP down 2.9 per cent, while Woodside rose 1.8 per cent and Santos 1.5 per cent on oil. Regis Resources closed FY26 at the top of its production guidance with 379,000 ounces of gold, Newmont reported record second-quarter free cash flow of US$2.2 billion, and Cochlear confirmed its implant systems will keep entering the United States duty free. The cash rate is 4.35 per cent ahead of the 11 August Reserve Bank meeting, and the June-quarter consumer price index lands on Wednesday.
The ASX 200 finished yesterday's session down 0.8 per cent at 8,772, taking it 0.3 per cent lower over five sessions and up 0.7 per cent over 12 months. Technology led the fall, with WiseTech Global, Xero and Codan each down more than 4 per cent, NextDC off 3.6 per cent and Life360 down 4.4 per cent, while BHP fell 2.9 per cent, Rio Tinto 1.7 per cent and Northern Star 3.9 per cent. Energy was the offset after Brent's move above US$100 the night before, Woodside up 1.8 per cent and Santos up 1.5 per cent. The 10-year Australian government bond yield is 4.99 per cent, 8 basis points higher over five sessions, and the Australian dollar bought US69.83 cents.
The S&P 500 closed the overnight session unchanged at 7,412, the Nasdaq fell 0.6 per cent to 24,976 and the Dow Jones rose 0.5 per cent to 51,947. Chip stocks carried the weight: Intel fell almost 8 per cent even though second-quarter revenue of US$16.1 billion was up 25 per cent, its fastest growth in more than 15 years, because the company lifted 2026 capital spending above US$20 billion from about US$18 billion. Treasuries were mixed, the 10-year down 2 basis points to 4.68 per cent and the 2-year up 6 to 4.37 per cent, while the US dollar index held at 101.47 and the VIX ended at 18.58. Brent fell 2.3 per cent to US$98.38 and gold rose 0.2 per cent to US$4,056.
The Stoxx 600 closed the overnight session up 0.8 per cent at 645, the DAX up 1.4 per cent at 25,099 and the FTSE 100 up 0.9 per cent at 10,736. The move followed the S&P Global flash euro-zone composite PMI, which rose to 51.9 in July from 50.0 in June against a 50.3 consensus, its first expansion reading in four months, with services at 51.6 from 49.4 and manufacturing at 52.0 from 51.4. SAP's second-quarter result, with cloud revenue up 24 per cent, lifted the technology sector. The euro slipped to 1.1375 against the US dollar despite the data, and is down 3.2 per cent over 12 months.
At yesterday's Asian close, the Nikkei 225 finished down 2.7 per cent at 64,611, the Hang Seng down 1.0 per cent at 24,963 and the Shanghai Composite down 1.6 per cent at 3,814. Reuters reported the Tokyo fall followed Alphabet's overnight decline and the questions it raised about hyperscaler capital spending, with Brent above US$100 at the time and the yen near 40-year lows adding to imported-inflation concerns. Japan's headline inflation rose to 1.7 per cent in June from 1.5 per cent in May, a six-month high. The yen sits at 163.79 to the US dollar, 11.4 per cent weaker over 12 months.
The near-term risk the market is pricing is a rise, not a cut. Cash rate futures are close to fully pricing a 25 basis point increase to 4.60 per cent by year end, up from about a 60 per cent chance before the June labour force report, and no cut is priced before 2027. The cash rate is 50 basis points higher than 12 months ago.
The unemployment rate held at 4.4 per cent and the participation rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 67.0 per cent, close to a one-year high. The strength moved money markets from pricing roughly a 60 per cent chance of a rise to 4.60 per cent by December to pricing it almost in full.
Australian exporters were previously subject to a lower baseline. ABC News reported the change makes it harder for Australian businesses to compete in their largest services and third-largest goods export market.
That leaves the Australian 10-year 31 basis points above the United States 10-year at 4.68 per cent, and the 12-month rise of 68 basis points is more than double the 27 basis point rise in the US 10-year over the same period. The Australian dollar bought US69.83 cents, up 0.2 per cent on the day and 5.8 per cent over 12 months.
Over five sessions the local index is down 0.3 per cent, closing at 8,772.
The steadiness contrasts with copper at US$13,976 a tonne, up 0.5 per cent on the day, 1.9 per cent over five sessions and 9.7 per cent over 12 months.
The metal held its gain even with the US dollar index unchanged at 101.47 and up 0.7 per cent over five sessions.
Over 12 months bitcoin is down 45.9 per cent and ethereum down 49.9 per cent, the weakest 12-month readings of any asset class in the table.
The currency has gained 5.8 per cent over 12 months while the US dollar index has risen 4.2 per cent, a combination consistent with the widening Australian rate premium.
Services carried it, rising to 53.6 from 51.2 against 51.5 expected, while manufacturing was steady at 53.8 from 53.9 and the manufacturing output index fell to 53.6 from 56.2, a four-month low. Employment across the survey rose for the first time in three months.
Services returned to growth at 51.6 from 49.4 and manufacturing rose to 52.0 from 51.4, with the manufacturing output index at its highest since March 2022. Manufacturing input-cost inflation and output-price inflation both slowed, though cost pressures remained elevated. The euro still fell, to 1.1375 against the US dollar.
Brent is still up 11.7 per cent over five sessions and 42.2 per cent over 12 months. Barclays told Reuters it sees upside risks to its 2026 Brent forecast given the Strait of Hormuz impasse, and prediction markets quoted by CNBC put the odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal within 12 months at less than even.
That puts the weight on chair Kevin Warsh's press conference for guidance. The Bank of England is expected to hold at 3.75 per cent on 30 July and the Bank of Japan at 1.00 per cent on 31 July, with advance United States second-quarter GDP due on 30 July at a consensus of 2.3 per cent annualised.
He cited the European Union's 890 million euro fine on Google announced on 23 July, alongside earlier fines he put at US$15 billion on Apple, US$3 billion on Meta and US$2.5 billion on Amazon.
Over five sessions the 10-year is 14 basis points higher and the 2-year 21 basis points higher, and over 12 months they are up 27 and 49 basis points respectively, a flattening consistent with the market pricing tighter policy rather than weaker growth.
The median sale price fell to US$398,300 from US$412,000 in May and US$409,200 a year earlier, and months of supply eased to 9.3 from 9.4, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaging 6.49 per cent in June.
The print landed with the yen at 163.79 to the US dollar, 0.8 per cent weaker over five sessions and 11.4 per cent weaker over 12 months, and ahead of the Bank of Japan decision on 31 July.
Japan said its August crude supplies are fully covered despite the disruption, and ship insurers have restricted war coverage for Saudi Arabian cargoes in the Red Sea.
The controls extend to the European Union a lever China has already used against the United States, and land as Brussels moves toward its ban on Russian gas tankers.
Small businesses have filed suit against the administration over the latest round, and the New York Times separately reported that a benchmark United States interest rate has jumped to the highest level of Trump's second term.
The two readings sit against money markets that moved on 23 July to price a September rate rise from the ECB on the back of the energy-price spike.
Volatility stayed contained through a week in which Brent rose 11.7 per cent and the Nasdaq fell 2.1 per cent.
Cash and bullion rose $667 million over the year to $1.18 billion at 30 June, after $151 million of dividends and $156 million of tax. Regis also confirmed it did not counterbid for Vault Minerals, which terminated the scheme implementation deed and paid the break fee of about $50 million, now received.
Free cash flow of US$2.2 billion was a second-quarter record and operating cash flow was US$2.9 billion. The company declared a US$0.26 dividend, has repurchased US$1.7 billion of stock since the last result with US$4.3 billion left under the US$6 billion authorisation, and held full-year guidance at 5.26 million ounces and US$1,680 an ounce.
The stock had fallen 4.6 per cent on 22 July after President Trump announced a 100 per cent tariff on imported generic pharmaceuticals from 2028. Cochlear ended Friday's session little changed.
Morgans retained its buy rating and lifted its price target to $6.89 from $6.28 in response. Generation Development carries a market capitalisation of about $1.7 billion.
Available cash at 30 June was $267 million, within total cash and deposits of $368 million. The company said a limited number of continuing material matters may still affect its assessment of its ability to continue as a going concern, and that the second stage of the Chow Tai Fook and Far East Consortium transaction is expected to complete in the second half of calendar 2026.
Directors declared a final fully franked dividend of 44.0 cents a share, up 6.0 cents on last year's final, with a record date of 18 September and payment on 2 October. Audited results are due on 24 August.
The offer sits alongside a conditional placement of about $180 million, taking the total raising to about $300 million, subject to shareholder approval at a meeting on 30 July. Largest holder KMP Investments moves to 36.2 per cent on settlement, and new shares are expected to be issued on 28 July.
The company attributed the fall to a softer renewals book, weaker second-half new business, higher expected credit losses and currency losses. Cash rose 27 per cent to $51.7 million.
Payment of the special dividend reduces the scheme consideration to $0.60 a share from $0.65. The record date is expected to be 5 August and payment 12 August, with franking credits of up to 2.14 cents a share attached.
The combined raising is worth up to $18.5 million against the company's clinical development program.
It was among the strongest movers on a session in which the ASX 200 fell 0.8 per cent.
The agreement is the company's first binding supply arrangement with a global construction materials counterparty.
The update covers the company's uncrewed aerial systems propulsion business, its main revenue line.
The accessory is an addition to the company's WiSE cardiac resynchronisation therapy system, its sole commercial product.
It is the company's first commercial product sale since listing, ahead of its battery cell business.
The raising is directed at the company's prime-mover electrification business as it moves beyond the Australian market.
Zenith lodged a second supplementary target's statement on the same day, and Far East Gold separately advised its offer for another target closes on 29 July.
The listing came on a session in which the ASX 200 fell 0.8 per cent and seven of 11 sectors declined.
The firm has been under scrutiny since a Senate inquiry into its handling of audit-leak whistleblower allegations, and partners were fined up to $180,000 over work for Telstra and Optus earlier this month.
Liberty Bell Bay is the largest manufacturing employer in northern Tasmania and part of Gupta's GFG Alliance.
The decision is among the first tests of the reinstatement provisions in the federal employee-like worker regime.
Current cloud backlog, the company's forward indicator, grew 26 per cent, an acceleration on the first quarter after two quarters of lagging cloud revenue growth. The result lifted European technology stocks on a session in which the Stoxx 600 rose 0.8 per cent.
The company held full-year earnings guidance at US$17.30 to US$17.90 a share, saying it will reinvest the outperformance rather than let it fall to the bottom line. Chief executive Steve Squeri linked the result to the reworked United States Platinum products launched over the past year.
The stock had risen close to 13 per cent in after-hours trade on the result before reversing, as investors focused on a 2026 capital spending plan lifted above US$20 billion from about US$18 billion. Non-GAAP gross margin was 41.8 per cent, about 280 basis points above the company's own guidance, and foundry sales were US$5.8 billion, up 31 per cent.
The sale would be BP's last renewable power business and sits within a US$20 billion divestment program. The FT reported BP is not seeking a high price given its debt burden, and that the transaction is not yet confirmed.
The report lands alongside CNBC's account of growing bond-market unease over hyperscaler capital spending, and follows Alphabet lifting its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to between US$195 billion and US$205 billion on 22 July. Meta reports second-quarter results on 29 July.
Florida Power & Light has about 21 gigawatts of large-load customer interest, with advanced discussions on 12 gigawatts, a portion of which the company believes it could begin serving from 2028. NextEra said each gigawatt under the approved large-load tariff equates to roughly US$2 billion of capital expenditure at the same return on equity as its other investments.
Three of 15 domestic divisions accounted for around half of the company impact. HCA updated its full-year guidance to reflect the coverage losses following the expiry of the enhanced premium tax credits at the end of 2025.
Paramount had intended to complete by the end of September. A ticking fee of an additional 25 US cents per share per quarter starts from 30 September, which CNBC put at roughly US$650 million a quarter, or about US$1.7 billion if the deal runs to June 2027.
The regulator also said the proposed management team had not shown sufficient banking and fiduciary experience. Wise's existing United States business continues under money transmitter licences covering 48 states and four territories.
The company lost 172,000 broadband customers in the quarter, worse than the 116,000 lost a year earlier, ending with 29.4 million internet customers. Internet revenue fell 3.2 per cent to US$5.8 billion.
Renewable Products sold 1,026 thousand tonnes at a record comparable sales margin of US$1,223 a tonne, up 43 per cent on the prior quarter, as the Middle East conflict lifted fuel prices.
A sale at that value would be one of the larger United States onshore divestments of the year, and comes with WTI at US$90.47 a barrel, up 37.0 per cent over 12 months.
A confirmed breach carries a fine of up to 6 per cent of global turnover. The charge lands the same week the Commission fined Google 890 million euros over digital antitrust rules.
The two have run joint robotaxi services in United States cities under an arrangement in which Uber handles fleet operations and demand. Uber carries a market capitalisation of about US$134 billion.
The count runs against capital expenditure guidance that continues to rise, with Alphabet lifting its 2026 range to US$195 billion to US$205 billion this week.
Nvidia is the largest company in the global universe at about US$5.0 trillion of market capitalisation, and Palantir about US$282 billion.
Kashagan is one of the largest oil discoveries of the past four decades and is run by a consortium including Eni, Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and CNPC.
“The European Union will pay a very big price for this illegal and highly unethical conduct.”
“The Digital Services Act requires platforms to build protections for minors into the design of their services and holds them to account when they fail to do so. A high level of protection should not be an opt-in; it should be the default.”
“AI and SAP Business Data Cloud were embedded as key pillars in more than 90% of our 50 largest deals, giving us strong confidence for the second half of the year.”
“We expect a range-bound commodity environment that is constructive for upstream investment.”
“Power demand continues to accelerate. Customers can't afford to wait for an energy partner to secure equipment, land or financing. And states shouldn't have to choose between economic growth and affordable electric bills.”
“Adjusted admissions for patients who were formerly covered by the health insurance exchanges declined by 15%... these patients migrated almost 1-for-1 to uninsured.”
For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.