Starting Point
Friday, 3 July 2026
as of 9:53am AEST
Markets at a glance
as of Friday, 3 July 2026, 9:53am AEST
S&P 500
7,483
ASX 200
8,723
-0.6%
US 10y
4.48%
+4 bp
AUD/USD
0.6920
+0.4%
Brent
$71.57
Bitcoin
$61,517
+2.5%
Comment

Good morning. US employers added 57,000 jobs in June, well short of the 115,000 economists expected, in a report brought forward a day ahead of the Independence Day holiday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, though that reflected a drop in the participation rate to 61.5%, its lowest since March 2021, rather than stronger hiring. The US dollar fell after the release, with the DXY down 0.5% to 100.91, gold rose 1.6% to US$4,135 an ounce and the Australian dollar gained 0.4% to US69.20 cents. Equities were mixed: the S&P 500 finished little changed at 7,483 and the Nasdaq fell 0.8% to 25,833 as semiconductors sold off, while the Dow closed at a record.

The chip selloff did the damage in technology. Micron fell more than 10%, having risen about 260% this year, and Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each dropped more than 9% in Asian trade, unwinding part of a first-half run in which the semiconductor sector gained more than 80%. Away from equities, investors sought to redeem about US$4.7bn from Blue Owl's two flagship private credit funds in the second quarter, down from US$5.4bn in the first, and both funds stayed capped at 5% a quarter. In deals, Lockheed Martin emerged as frontrunner to buy naval-technology group Ultra Maritime for about US$3.5bn, and Microsoft signed its first Australian content-licensing agreement, with Nine Entertainment.

Locally, the ASX 200 closed the prior session at 8,723, down 0.6% and 1.0% lower over five sessions. The Reserve Bank's cash rate stays at 4.35% and the 10-year government bond yield is 4.77%, with National Australia Bank now expecting the next move to be a cut ahead of the RBA's 11 August meeting. Iron ore fell 1.8% to US$98.36 a tonne, weighing on BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue, while the higher gold price supported producers Northern Star and Evolution Mining.

Macro
Australia
The Reserve Bank's cash rate remains at 4.35%, with the 10-year Australian government bond yield at 4.77%, down 1 basis point on the day and 62 basis points higher over the past year.

The next RBA board meeting is on 11 August; National Australia Bank now says the next move in the cash rate is more likely to be down, having previously expected steady policy.

arcpoint markets data
The Australian dollar rose 0.4% to US69.20 cents as the US dollar fell after the soft US jobs report, with the DXY down 0.5% to 100.91.

The Australian dollar is up 5.1% over the past year; the euro rose 0.4% to US$1.1429 and the yen firmed 0.7% to 161.41 per US dollar.

arcpoint markets data
The ASX 200 closed the prior session at 8,723, down 0.6% and 1.0% lower over five sessions.

The index is up 2.1% over the past year, against gains of 20.2% for the S&P 500 and 76.2% for the Nikkei 225 over the same period.

arcpoint markets data
Global

The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% as the participation rate dropped 0.3 point to 61.5%; leisure and hospitality shed 61,000 jobs and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in the month.

The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in June and dropped its prior bias toward a cut; the report eased the case for a near-term hike.

Requests reached 18.8% of shares at the US$34bn Blue Owl Credit Income Corp and 38.1% at the US$4.9bn technology fund; both stayed capped at 5% a quarter, and Blue Owl shares rose about 5%.

Companies
Australia

The group is midway through a fleet-renewal program covering more than 200 aircraft and has trimmed domestic capacity to lift revenue per seat.

The major iron ore producers were pressured by a 1.8% fall in the benchmark price to US$98.36 a tonne.

Iron ore is down 2.1% over five sessions but 5.3% higher over the past year; BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are the largest resource names on the ASX.

arcpoint markets data
Woodside Energy and Santos, the ASX's largest oil and gas producers, faced a soft crude backdrop, with Brent little changed at US$71.57 a barrel.

Brent is down 4.9% over five sessions, and WTI eased 0.2% to US$68.47.

arcpoint markets data
Gold rose 1.6% overnight to US$4,135 an ounce, a tailwind for the ASX-listed producers Northern Star and Evolution Mining.

The metal is up 23.5% over the past year and 2.6% over five sessions, gaining after the weak US jobs report pushed the US dollar down 0.5%.

arcpoint markets data
Global
Micron Technology fell more than 10% as investors took profits across semiconductors, dragging the Nasdaq down 0.8% to 25,833.

Micron is still up about 260% this year, and the chip sector gained more than 80% in the first half of 2026; Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each fell more than 9% in Asian trade.

Bloomberg

Ultra Maritime was assembled by Advent through the 2019 take-private of Cobham and the 2021 purchase of Ultra Electronics; Lockheed shares eased about 1.4% in after-hours trade.

Nine's titles include The Australian Financial Review, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age; Microsoft said the deal is intended to ground Copilot answers in verified reporting and cite sources.

The site was part of a planned 2,100-acre campus; QTS said Virginia remains central to its business, citing about US$5bn of investment in the state's central region.

Quotes of the day
Macro

“The June payroll release came in cooler than anticipated, which should take some of the pressure off the Fed to hike rates in the coming months.”

Jeff Schulze
head of economic and market strategy, ClearBridge Investments
Consumer

“The slowdown in payroll growth challenges the narrative of renewed labour market strength that has been building in recent months.”

Seema Shah
chief global strategist, Principal Asset Management
Inflation

“For now, the labour market is holding, giving the Fed opportunity to stay focused on price stability.”

Jeffrey Roach
chief economist, LPL Financial
AI / supply chain

“Investors had been kind of hovering with their finger over this sell button.”

Mark Hackett
chief market strategist, Nationwide
Industry outlook

“We are riding the wave of AI demand. As AI becomes a pillar of society, the strength of the flash memory market is expected to continue.”

Hiroo Oota
chief executive, Kioxia
Regulation

“The current wave of redemption requests is the first real liquidity test for the asset class, at scale.”

Nicolas Roth
head of private markets advisory, Union Bancaire Privee
Markets in detail
as of Friday, 3 July 2026, 9:53am AEST · levels at each market's last close
Level As of 1d 5d 12mo
Equities
S&P 500 7,483 2 Jul +1.7% +20.2%
Nasdaq 25,833 2 Jul -0.8% +1.9% +26.7%
ASX 200 (prior) 8,723 1 Jul -0.6% -1.0% +2.1%
Stoxx 600 639 1 Jul -0.4% +0.7% +18.3%
Nikkei 225 70,475 1 Jul +0.6% +1.9% +76.2%
Hang Seng 22,881 30 Jun -0.6% -2.0% -4.9%
Rates
US 10y 4.48% 1 Jul +4 bp +7 bp +22 bp
US 2y 4.17% 1 Jul +3 bp +6 bp +39 bp
ACGB 10y 4.77% 24 Jun -1 bp +62 bp
RBA cash 4.35% 2 Jul +50 bp
FX
AUD/USD 0.6920 2 Jul +0.4% +0.3% +5.1%
DXY 100.91 2 Jul -0.5% -0.5% +4.3%
USD/JPY 161.41 2 Jul -0.7% -0.2% +12.5%
EUR/USD 1.1429 2 Jul +0.4% +0.6% -3.1%
Commodities
Brent $71.57 2 Jul -4.9% +3.6%
WTI $68.47 2 Jul -0.2% -4.8% +1.5%
Gold $4,135 2 Jul +1.6% +2.6% +23.5%
Iron ore 62% $98.36 1 Jul -1.8% -2.1% +5.3%
Copper $13,619 2 Jul +0.9% +1.8% +20.0%
Crypto
Bitcoin $61,517 2 Jul +2.5% +2.6% -43.5%
Ethereum $1,698 2 Jul +5.6% +8.1% -33.9%
Calendar
Australia No first-tier domestic data scheduled. CFTC Australian dollar speculative net positions are due early Saturday AEST. The Reserve Bank board next meets on 11 August.
United States US markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday, observed on Friday 3 July. CFTC speculative net positions for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, gold and crude oil are due.
Earnings A quiet global calendar with US markets shut. A handful of Japanese small- and mid-cap companies report in Tokyo; no major US or Australian reporters.
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For wholesale clients only

For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.