Good morning. Brent crude topped US$100 a barrel for the first time since May, rising 6.9 per cent to US$100.55 after Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea deepened fears over Middle East supply. The jump drove a global bond sell-off. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.70 per cent, its highest since January 2025, and money markets moved to price about a 38 per cent chance the Federal Reserve raises rates at its 28-29 July meeting, up from about 12 per cent a week ago. Wall Street fell, the S&P 500 down 1.2 per cent to 7,408 and the Nasdaq 2.2 per cent to 25,138 as Tesla and Alphabet weighed, though Intel rallied after reporting its fastest revenue growth in more than 15 years. Gold fell 2.3 per cent to US$4,052 as the US dollar firmed.
Locally, the ASX 200 closed the prior session up 0.2 per cent at 8,839, a third straight day of gains led by the miners, though a hawkish repricing of the Reserve Bank trimmed the advance late. Macquarie Group said Shemara Wikramanayake will retire as chief executive on 7 November after eight years in the role, with banking and financial services head Greg Ward to succeed her. Paladin Energy reported FY26 uranium output of 4.82 million pounds, above guidance, and HUB24 posted record full-year net inflows. The Australian dollar eased 0.3 per cent to US69.72 cents as the firmer greenback and higher US yields widened the rate gap.
The AI build-out kept driving corporate results away from the oil story. Blackstone reported distributable earnings up 26 per cent to US$2 billion and record assets under management of US$1.35 trillion, saying nine of its ten best-performing holdings are tied to artificial intelligence. Lockheed Martin lifted its 2026 guidance on a record US$230 billion backlog, and the European Union fined Google 890 million euros over its search and app-store practices.
The ASX 200 closed the prior session up 0.2 per cent at 8,839, a third straight day of gains led by the miners, though a hawkish repricing of the Reserve Bank trimmed the advance late in the day. Paladin Energy jumped after FY26 uranium output beat guidance, and the materials sector firmed as iron ore held at US$98.38 and copper eased 1.8 per cent to US$13,972. The Australian dollar fell 0.3 per cent to US69.72 cents and the 10-year government bond yield was 4.91 per cent, down 1 basis point.
The S&P 500 fell 1.2 per cent to 7,408 and the Nasdaq 2.2 per cent to 25,138, with Tesla and Alphabet the heaviest drags, while the Dow lost 1.0 per cent to 51,712. Brent crude's jump above US$100 pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up 5 basis points to 4.70 per cent, its highest since January 2025, and the 2-year was 4.31 per cent. The US dollar index firmed 0.3 per cent to 101.45, gold fell 2.3 per cent to US$4,052 and the VIX rose 12.4 per cent to 18.70. Intel rallied after posting its fastest revenue growth in more than 15 years.
The Stoxx 600 fell 1.2 per cent to 639, the DAX 1.6 per cent to 24,763 and the FTSE 100 0.7 per cent to 10,639, as the oil-driven jump in bond yields weighed on rate-sensitive sectors. The European Union fined Google 890 million euros over its search and app-store practices. Money markets moved to price a September European Central Bank rate rise as the energy-price spike lifted inflation risk.
The Nikkei 225 rose 0.5 per cent to 66,423 and the Hang Seng gained 1.3 per cent to 25,211, while the Shanghai Composite added 0.3 per cent to 3,877. The yen stayed weak, with the US dollar buying 163.81, up 0.4 per cent. Chinese memory-chip maker CXMT is due to list in Shanghai on 27 July after the region's biggest initial public offering this year.
The 10-year Australian government bond yield was 4.91 per cent, down 1 basis point, against a US 10-year at 4.70 per cent, up 5 basis points, leaving the yield gap in the US dollar's favour.
The US dollar index rose 0.3 per cent to 101.45; over 12 months the Australian dollar is still up 5.6 per cent.
The funding supports reactor and design work for the SSN-AUKUS boats and sits alongside spending on the Osborne submarine yard in South Australia.
Brent is up 19.4 per cent over five sessions and 46.8 per cent over the past year; the surge threatens a fresh leg of inflation and is resetting rate expectations.
Money markets moved to price about a 38 per cent chance the Federal Reserve raises rates at its 28-29 July meeting, up from about 12 per cent a week earlier, on CME data; a hike would be the first since 2023.
The repricing tracked the same oil-driven jump in global yields that pushed US and UK rates higher overnight.
Firm-wide private credit inflows slowed for a second straight quarter to about US$31 billion, though Blackstone said BCRED redemption requests are down materially early in the third quarter.
Ward joined Macquarie in 1996 and was global chief financial officer for 14 years before running banking and financial services from 2013; Wikramanayake steps down after nearly four decades at the firm.
The June quarter delivered 1.23 million pounds at a realised price of US$70.6 a pound and a production cost of US$43.3 a pound, below the US$44 to US$48 guided range; FY27 guidance is 5.1 to 5.6 million pounds.
The platform operator has been among the fastest-growing in the specialist wrap segment; the update pointed to further momentum in adviser-driven flows.
Chief executive Vanessa Hudson said the airline needs three aircraft to run a daily service on each route, with the Airbus A350-1000 fleet the platform for the launch.
Data centre and AI revenue rose 59 per cent to US$6.3 billion, and Intel said the unit could not keep up with orders; the shares rallied about 12 per cent after the result.
Quarterly inflows reached US$68.3 billion, and the firm said nine of its ten best-performing holdings are tied to artificial intelligence; new ventures in the quarter included a US$5 billion Google TPU cloud partnership and a US$35 billion private-credit financing for Broadcom.
The penalty is separate from the 4.125 billion euro Android fine upheld by the EU's top court on 2 July, and comes as Washington threatens retaliation over EU action against US technology firms.
Contract activity in the quarter included a seven-year, US$35 billion Missile Defense Agency award to quadruple interceptor production and a US$2.3 billion radar contract.
Chairman Richard Adkerson framed copper as central to electrification demand, while the company reaffirmed its aspiration to grow as one of the largest copper producers; copper eased 1.8 per cent to US$13,972 a tonne on the day.
“We're performing well in a positive but dynamic market environment. That includes the impact of rates, inflation and geopolitical volatility more broadly.”
“We built the largest data centre development business in the world, and demand for compute is accelerating.”
“Our backlog reached a new all-time high, now US$230 billion. We are raising our 2026 guidance, reflecting our confidence that our strategy is gaining momentum.”
“Electricity means copper. As the world continues to electrify, it will need what we produce more than ever.”
“Equity gains have been the dominant driver of household wealth accumulation and the main contributor to a positive wealth effect on consumer spending.”
“It is our duty to defend the rule of law, and to deliver a strong message.”
For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.