Good morning. US shares closed higher, the S&P 500 up 0.4 per cent at 7,572 and the Nasdaq up 0.6 per cent at 26,269, after June producer prices fell 0.3 per cent on the month, their first decline since August 2025, and the headline annual rate eased to 5.5 per cent from 6.0 per cent. New York Federal Reserve president John Williams said inflation has peaked and monetary policy is well positioned. Treasury yields fell, the 10-year down 4 basis points to 4.54 per cent and the 2-year down 8 basis points to 4.18 per cent, and the US dollar index slipped 0.4 per cent to 100.50. The VIX fell 5.0 per cent to 15.67.
The second wave of US bank results extended the run of records. Morgan Stanley reported quarterly revenue above US$21bn and earnings of US$3.46 a share, and BlackRock's assets under management reached a record US$15.3tn on US$192bn of net inflows. Deal news was heavy: Stripe and private equity firm Advent International offered about US$53bn for PayPal, at US$60.50 a share, while SpaceX fell below its US$135 float price at one point and its sell-off wiped roughly US$1tn from the company's value. ASML raised its full-year sales guidance, citing AI-driven demand for its lithography machines.
Brent crude rose 1.1 per cent to US$85.63 a barrel, up 9.8 per cent over five sessions, as the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping again. China's economy grew 4.3 per cent in the June quarter, its slowest pace since late 2022. Closer to home, Perpetual received a sweetened takeover proposal from EQT valuing it at about A$2.50bn, or A$22.07 a share. The ASX 200 closed the prior session up 0.4 per cent at 8,841 and the Australian dollar rose 0.4 per cent to US70.07 cents. The Reserve Bank cash rate is 4.35 per cent, with 30-day interbank futures pricing no cut before 2027.
The ASX 200 closed the prior session up 0.4 per cent at 8,841, extending a 0.6 per cent gain over five days. Rio Tinto rose about 1.5 per cent after retaining its 2026 guidance in a June-quarter production update, and Macquarie Group briefly touched a record A$256.68. The Australian dollar rose 0.4 per cent to US70.07 cents and iron ore held at US$98.92 a tonne. The 10-year Australian government bond yield is 4.89 per cent and the cash rate 4.35 per cent.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4 per cent to 7,572, the Nasdaq 0.6 per cent to 26,269 and the Dow 0.3 per cent to 52,659, helped by softer June producer prices and gains in the large banks and technology names. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 4.54 per cent and the 2-year 8 basis points to 4.18 per cent. The US dollar index eased 0.4 per cent to 100.50, gold held at US$4,067 an ounce and the VIX fell 5.0 per cent to 15.67.
The Stoxx 600 edged up 0.1 per cent to 643, while the FTSE 100 slipped 0.1 per cent to 10,516 and Germany's DAX fell 0.6 per cent to 25,000. The European Central Bank faces a rethink on rates as renewed Strait of Hormuz hostilities keep oil elevated, with Brent at US$85.63 a barrel. Thames Water warned over its future as Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham weighed bringing the utility under state control.
Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.5 per cent to 68,752 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.4 per cent to 24,681, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.3 per cent to 3,956. China's economy grew 4.3 per cent in the June quarter, its slowest since late 2022 and below the 4.5 per cent consensus, as property and infrastructure investment fell. The yen held near multi-decade lows, with USD/JPY at 162.14.
The 10-year Australian government bond yield is 4.89 per cent, up 6 basis points on the day, and the Australian dollar rose 0.4 per cent to US70.07 cents, up 1.0 per cent over five sessions.
The move follows the Reserve Bank flagging the data-centre build-out as a factor in its inflation outlook.
The reduction underpins Treasurer Jim Chalmers's forward estimates.
The steadier bulk and base-metals prices supported the resources-heavy local market.
The Gloucester project pairs pumped-hydro storage with solar generation.
The review examines lamb imports into the United States amid the Trump administration's trade agenda.
The greenback slipped after the softer June US producer-price data.
Core producer prices rose 0.2 per cent on the month for an annual rate of 4.7 per cent, below the 5.2 per cent expected; goods prices fell 1.4 per cent, led by a 12 per cent drop in gasoline.
Williams expects inflation to ease to about 3.25 per cent by year-end and return to the 2 per cent goal by 2028; the 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 4.54 per cent and the 2-year 8 basis points to 4.18 per cent.
Real-estate investment fell 18 per cent, infrastructure 2.4 per cent and manufacturing 1.2 per cent, even as exports rose 17.6 per cent in the first half.
Oil traders warned the market is close to running on empty after the renewed disruption, the Financial Times reported; WTI rose 1.1 per cent to US$80.24.
The yen held near multi-decade lows, USD/JPY steady at 162.14.
The increase adds to pressure on refined-product supply as Hormuz disruption lifts crude.
The IMF warned buffers are thinner heading into any further disruption.
Higher oil complicates the path back to the 2 per cent inflation goal.
The change would bring digital assets under Japan's financial-instruments regime.
The subdued volatility gauge accompanied the softer inflation read and the rally in equities.
The proposal is a near-22 per cent premium to Perpetual's 1 July close and exceeds an earlier A$2.45bn approach the board rejected; Perpetual said it is assessing the offer, with no certainty of a binding deal.
Copper production fell 7 per cent from a year earlier to 213,000 tonnes; the shares rose about 1.5 per cent.
The miner flagged that inflation would lift 2027 costs by 4 to 5 per cent, alongside higher capital spending; the shares fell 0.6 per cent.
Technology companies make up about 2.1 per cent of the S&P/ASX 200 against 38 per cent of the S&P 500; CommSec has close to three million customers.
The dispute concerns a forced-sale process over the Dexus Bloc shares and the suspension of certain governance rights.
The shares rose 2.7 per cent on the day.
The shares rose about 4 per cent following the announcement.
The shares rose about 4 per cent.
Kingsgate was the strongest performer in the ASX 200 on the day.
The award was disclosed as a price-sensitive filing to the ASX.
The shares rose 26 per cent, leading small-cap gainers.
The loan was disclosed as a price-sensitive filing to the ASX.
The shares rose more than 8 per cent, outperforming the top 200.
The bid is a roughly 28 per cent premium to PayPal's prior close and includes about US$50bn of committed bank financing; PayPal's board is due to consider it around 20 July.
Second-quarter net sales were EUR 9.3bn, above the top of its guidance, at a 54 per cent gross margin; it now expects advanced-logic foundry system sales to grow more than 25 per cent this year.
Return on tangible common equity was 27 per cent, total client assets reached US$10tn and Wealth Management added a record US$148bn of net new assets.
The operating margin was 45.9 per cent, up 260 basis points from a year earlier, with US$868bn of net inflows over the past 12 months.
SpaceX listed in June; its bonds have weakened, with yields moving toward high-yield territory.
The company pointed to growth across oncology, immunology and neuroscience, with several products each delivering more than US$1bn in quarterly sales.
Loans grew 4 per cent to US$363bn, driven by commercial lending.
The custody bank pointed to two consecutive record sales quarters.
The insurer cited favourable benefit-expense performance and cost management, and said it remains confident of at least 12 per cent adjusted earnings growth in 2027.
The chipmaker priced its ADRs at US$149 and raised US$26.5bn in the offering.
The buyback follows a period of shareholder engagement over capital returns.
The claim adds to scrutiny of the telecoms group's heavily leveraged balance sheet.
It would rank among the largest technology listings in the AI sector.
The model draws on techniques from Chinese rivals, the Financial Times reported.
The move follows months of talks over the future of the country's steelmaking capacity.
“There are encouraging signs that inflation has peaked and it should edge down in the coming quarters. The current stance of monetary policy is well positioned.”
“Strong end market demand this year has motivated our customers to aggressively add capacity on their leading-edge nodes. A number of our customers have revised their capital expenditure plans upward for the year.”
“Dialogue with clients remains high and strategic activity has momentum. In Investment Banking, Morgan Stanley led landmark IPOs in the quarter while helping unlock broader client pipelines.”
“Elevance Health delivered second quarter results ahead of our outlook, reflecting favorable benefit expense performance and the actions we are taking to manage healthcare costs more effectively across the enterprise.”
“Client demand for structural growers like private markets, active ETFs, and systematic continues to lift the fee rate on net flows.”
“Credit performance remained strong, reflecting the strength of our economy as well as the quality of our portfolio.”
For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.