Starting Point
Monday, 3 August 2026
as of 7:15am AEST
Markets at a glance
Monday, 3 August 2026, 7:15am AEST · each at its last close
S&P 500
7,490
+0.7%
at 31 Jul close
ASX 200
8,977
+0.1%
at 31 Jul close
US 10y
4.75%
+8 bp
at 31 Jul close
AUD/USD
0.7049
+0.3%
at 2 Aug close
Brent
$90.12
+1.2%
at 31 Jul close
Bitcoin
$63,462
+1.1%
at 2 Aug close
Comment

Good morning. President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran on Saturday, saying the outline of a deal had been agreed, and OPEC+ signed off on another production increase a day later. Both add to expected oil supply and neither has traded. Friday's closes are the last prices on this page, and the local market opens into the news this morning.

Japan's finance minister, Satsuki Katayama, confirmed on Monday that Tokyo and Washington had acted together in the currency market. The United States Treasury warned banks late last week to stand ready, the New York Federal Reserve executed the buying, and both governments are now on the record together for the first time since 2011.

Closer to home, the halved fuel excise ended at midnight on Sunday, so pump prices rise from today into an inflation reading that has carried Hormuz-driven fuel costs since February. Cotality's July home value index landed this morning. The United States ISM manufacturing survey is out tonight and the July employment report lands on Friday, before the Reserve Bank's next decision on 11 August.

Markets by region
Australia

The ASX 200 finished Friday's session up 0.1 per cent at 8,977, taking its gain over five sessions to 2.3 per cent. Energy led, with Santos up 2.1 per cent, Whitehaven Coal up 2.7 per cent and Woodside Energy up 1.4 per cent as crude held above US$90 a barrel. The 10-year Australian government bond yield sits at 4.93 per cent, down 4 basis points on the day and 6 basis points over five sessions. The market has not traded since Friday's close.

Market Index
United States

Wall Street closed out July on Friday with the S&P 500 up 0.7 per cent at 7,490, the Nasdaq Composite up 1.0 per cent at 25,374 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.5 per cent at 52,485. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 8 basis points to 4.75 per cent, more than its 7 basis point move across the whole five sessions, while the two-year sits at 4.23 per cent. Brent crude rose 1.2 per cent to US$90.12 a barrel and gold 0.2 per cent to US$4,107 an ounce. The VIX fell 6.4 per cent to 15.99, down 13.9 per cent over five sessions.

arcpoint markets data
Europe

European markets ended Friday close to flat and mixed. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.1 per cent to 649, the FTSE 100 fell 0.3 per cent to 10,868 and the DAX rose 0.1 per cent to 25,629. Across five sessions the DAX is the strongest of the three, up 2.1 per cent, against 1.2 per cent for the FTSE 100 and 0.7 per cent for the Stoxx 600. The euro is at US$1.1553, up 1.4 per cent over five sessions.

arcpoint markets data
Asia

At Friday's Asian close the Nikkei 225 rose 4.0 per cent, or 2,494 points, to 64,362, one of its largest single-session gains of the year, led by semiconductor and artificial-intelligence names after Advantest raised its annual operating profit forecast by 35 per cent and its shares rose 15.7 per cent. The Hang Seng added 0.1 per cent to 25,884 and the Shanghai Composite 0.7 per cent to 3,832. Tokyo, Hong Kong and the mainland have not traded since Friday.

Reuters
Macro
Australia

Sydney fell 1.4 per cent and Melbourne 1.2 per cent, and the downturn has now spread to the capitals that had been holding up: Brisbane fell 0.6 per cent and Adelaide 0.2 per cent, each a second consecutive monthly decline after revisions, while Perth rose 0.1 per cent. Over the July quarter the five-city aggregate fell 2.0 per cent, with Sydney down 3.7 per cent and Melbourne down 3.0 per cent. The Guardian attributed the falls to the Middle East conflict feeding through to household budgets and to the capital gains tax and negative gearing changes.

That removes the 16 cent a litre discount that had been running since 1 July and adds 1.1 cents of indexation. The excise was originally cut from 52.6 cents in April, by 26.3 cents for three months, after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove petrol and diesel to record prices. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has confirmed the relief was always temporary. The September-quarter consumer price index is the first reading to carry the fully restored rate.

The rate falls to 1.5 per cent where enough deals are struck, and the government expects the scheme to direct between $200 million and $250 million a year to Australian journalism, allocated by the number of journalists a publisher employs. The government has said it anticipates the law covering Meta, Alphabet's Google and TikTok, and legislation is due later this year.

Battery-electric share alone has risen every month this year on Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries data, from 8.4 per cent of sales in January to 23.4 per cent in June. A fleet shifting this fast narrows the base the restored fuel excise is levied on, and it is demand that fuel retailers do not get back when crude falls.

Global

He said the proposed agreement would include the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran's nuclear threat, and that the pause depends on a deal being reached rapidly. The strait has been closed to most traffic since 28 February. Iran and Oman are still exchanging proposals on how the two shipping corridors would be managed, with Tehran having rejected an Omani plan to split traffic evenly, and the Financial Times reported on Sunday that an agreement is close.

The group also reached agreement in principle to pause increases after September for the rest of the year, which would leave roughly 2 million barrels a day of cuts dating to 2022 in place while members negotiate new baseline quotas. Reuters reported that this year's monthly increases have largely stayed on paper, because export disruption from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan has held actual barrels below quota. The core signatories were Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.

The dollar is at 157.44 yen, down 1.7 per cent on the day and 3.8 per cent over five sessions, after the yen reached its weakest level against the dollar since 1986 last week. The New York Federal Reserve executed the buying, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's notepad at Friday's cabinet meeting listed a purchase of US$5 billion to US$10 billion of yen. Katayama said both governments are prepared to counter declines they judge excessive.

The Bank of Japan left its policy rate at 1 per cent on Friday, in line with expectations.

That is the highest Japanese policy rate since September 1995, after a 25 basis point increase in June. Reuters reported the Bank has signalled a strong possibility of raising rates again soon, which would narrow the yield gap to United States assets that has pulled the yen to 40-year lows and is the reason the intervention was needed.

Reuters

Delaware Life Insurance and Clear Spring Life and Annuity control about US$85 billion between them. Private credit valuation and ratings practice is also an ASIC enforcement priority in Australia for 2026: the regulator's surveillance of 28 private credit funds found a number with either no valuation policy or an inadequate one, and it has since issued stop orders on retail private credit target market determinations.

CNBC attributed the fall to attacks in and around the Persian Gulf, volatile energy prices, questions over Federal Reserve policy and a slide in semiconductor shares, alongside investors challenging technology valuations and the returns on rising capital spending. Eight Nasdaq-100 constituents rose over the month, led by Autodesk, up almost 21 per cent.

Companies
Australia
Global

AstraZeneca is valued at about US$263 billion and Bristol Myers Squibb at about US$133 billion, and a deal on those terms would make AstraZeneca the world's fourth-largest drugmaker by market capitalisation. Talks have run over several months and the Financial Times reported they could still be delayed or collapse. Both companies have large oncology divisions, which is where antitrust scrutiny would concentrate, and both declined to comment. Neither stock has traded since the report.

Atkore makes electrical conduit, cable management and safety products used in construction, energy, data-centre and telecommunications projects, so the deal would take Prysmian from cable into the electrical hardware that surrounds it, the same build-out that is driving hyperscaler capital spending. No price has been reported. Prysmian declined to comment and Atkore did not respond to a request for comment.

Banco BPM walked away after Credit Agricole, its largest shareholder, said it saw no value in combining two mid-sized banks and would prefer to fold its own Italian unit into Banco BPM. Monte dei Paschi is itself defending a 35 billion euro offer from Intesa Sanpaolo, so the outcome sets the shape of Italian bank consolidation and the pricing reference for the next European bank deal.

Apple shares closed about 9 per cent lower on Friday, the first full session to trade on Thursday's result and on September-quarter revenue growth guidance of 9 to 11 per cent against about 12 per cent expected.

Chief executive Tim Cook told analysts memory costs accounted for more than the entire sequential decline in Apple's adjusted gross margin, and that Apple will pay more for memory in the September quarter than it did in the June quarter. June-quarter revenue was a record US$109.4 billion, up 16 per cent. The same memory shortage is what pushed Amazon's capital spending guidance higher.

CNBC
Amazon shares closed more than 15 per cent higher on Friday, the session after it lifted 2026 capital spending guidance to about US$220 billion from about US$200 billion on higher memory costs.

Amazon Web Services revenue was US$42.2 billion in the June quarter, up 37 per cent against the 31 per cent analysts expected and the division's fastest growth in 18 quarters. Contracted cloud commitments rose to US$496 billion from US$364 billion over the quarter, and group net sales were US$200.6 billion, up 20 per cent from US$167.7 billion.

CNBC

That sits behind Avengers: Endgame's US$357 million in 2019 and follows a record US$72 million from preview screenings. Openings of that size are shared with the exhibitors as well as the studio, which in Australia includes Event Hospitality and Entertainment, owner of Event Cinemas.

Quotes of the day
Geopolitics

“The perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”

Donald Trump, President of the United States
Statement on calling off the planned attack on Iran, Saturday
Macro

“It seems very undervalued to me.”

Scott Bessent, United States Treasury Secretary, on the yen
Reported by Reuters ahead of the joint intervention
Inflation

“On the pricing front, we reluctantly raised prices. We did it because we're in what I would characterize as a 100-year flood on the memory pricing, with exponential increases in memory prices.”

Tim Cook, chief executive, Apple
Apple June-quarter earnings call, 30 July
AI / supply chain

“Even at that amount, we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026, and I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027 too.”

Andy Jassy, chief executive, Amazon
Amazon second-quarter earnings call, 30 July
Industry outlook

“I can't predict when things in the Strait will settle down and we'll start to see those flows again.”

Mike Wirth, chief executive, Chevron
Chevron second-quarter earnings call, 31 July
Consumer

“That fuel excise relief will end midnight on Sunday, and that's because it has played a really important role helping to take some of the sting out of these cost-of-living pressures.”

Jim Chalmers, Treasurer of Australia
Confirming the end of the fuel excise discount
Markets in detail
as of Monday, 3 August 2026, 7:15am AEST · levels at each market's last close
Level As of 1d 5d 3mo 6mo 12mo
Equities
S&P 500 7,490 31 Jul +0.7% +1.0% +3.6% +7.9% +18.1%
Nasdaq 25,374 31 Jul +1.0% +1.6% +1.0% +8.1% +20.1%
ASX 200 (prior) 8,977 31 Jul +0.1% +2.3% +2.8% +1.2% +2.7%
Stoxx 600 649 31 Jul -0.1% +0.7% +6.2% +6.3% +18.9%
Nikkei 225 (prior) 64,362 31 Jul +4.0% -0.4% +8.1% +20.7% +56.7%
Hang Seng (prior) 25,884 31 Jul +0.1% +3.7% +0.4% -5.5% +4.5%
Dow Jones 52,485 31 Jul +0.5% +1.0% +6.0% +7.3% +18.9%
FTSE 100 10,868 31 Jul -0.3% +1.2% +4.9% +6.3% +19.0%
DAX 25,629 31 Jul +0.1% +2.1% +5.5% +4.4% +6.5%
Shanghai Comp (prior) 3,832 31 Jul +0.7% +0.5% -6.8% -6.9% +7.2%
VIX 15.99 31 Jul -6.4% -13.9% -5.9% -8.3% -4.4%
Rates
US 10y 4.75% 31 Jul +8 bp +7 bp +37 bp +50 bp +38 bp
US 2y 4.23% 30 Jul +1 bp -14 bp +35 bp +70 bp +29 bp
ACGB 10y 4.93% 29 Jul -4 bp -6 bp -6 bp +13 bp +60 bp
RBA cash 4.35% 30 Jul +25 bp +75 bp +50 bp
FX
AUD/USD 0.7049 2 Aug +0.3% +0.8% -2.3% +9.6%
DXY 99.80 31 Jul -0.2% -1.6% +1.6% +2.9% -0.2%
USD/JPY 157.44 2 Aug -1.7% -3.8% +0.4% +2.8% +4.4%
EUR/USD 1.1553 2 Aug +0.3% +1.4% -1.5% -3.4% +1.1%
Commodities
Brent $90.12 31 Jul +1.2% -6.9% -16.7% +27.5% +24.3%
WTI $84.67 31 Jul +1.3% -5.2% -16.9% +29.8% +22.2%
Gold $4,107 31 Jul +0.2% +1.0% -11.3% -12.9% +24.7%
Iron ore 62% $98.00 31 Jul -0.3% -0.4% -9.1% -7.2% -1.1%
Copper $14,254 31 Jul +0.3% +2.3% +9.0% +9.6% +49.3%
Crypto
Bitcoin $63,462 2 Aug +1.1% -0.6% -19.2% -17.6% -43.6%
Ethereum $1,884 2 Aug +2.2% -1.9% -18.9% -16.9% -44.5%
Calendar
Australia Bank holiday in New South Wales. Cotality Home Value Index for July, released this morning. ABS household spending indicator and goods trade balance later this week. Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Board decision on 11 August.
United States ISM manufacturing PMI for July, tonight AEST, with the employment sub-index alongside it. July employment report on Friday 7 August.
Earnings Coterra Energy, Vornado Realty Trust and Trump Media and Technology Group report today, United States time. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group reports today in Tokyo. AMD and Sandisk report later this week.
Seasoned judgement. Active navigation.
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For wholesale clients only

For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.