Good morning. Wall Street finished narrowly lower overnight. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2 per cent to 7,443 and the Dow fell 0.6 per cent to 51,839, while the Nasdaq held flat at 25,508 in thin, two-way trade. The larger move was in rates: the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.60 per cent and the 2-year added 2 basis points to 4.18 per cent, as the market leaned further towards a hawkish Federal Reserve ahead of the 28-29 July meeting. The US dollar index firmed 0.2 per cent to 100.96. Brent crude rose 0.9 per cent to US$88.92 a barrel, up 6.7 per cent over five sessions, after Iran's Houthi allies declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia and US average petrol prices climbed back above US$4 a gallon.
The AI trade stayed unsettled. Chip stocks remained under pressure in the wake of Chinese start-up Moonshot's Kimi K3 model, though names with data-centre exposure held up, and China's state-backed funds bought about US$9bn of equities to steady the market after last week's selloff, lifting the Hang Seng 2.4 per cent to 25,143. In dealmaking, a US federal judge paused Paramount Skydance's US$110bn takeover of Warner Bros Discovery for 14 days, ruling it likely breaches antitrust law. Earnings ran heavy: Ryanair's first-quarter profit fell 34 per cent as the Middle East conflict lifted fuel costs and softened fares, and Domino's Pizza posted its weakest US same-store sales in more than a year.
Locally, the ASX 200 closed the prior session down 0.1 per cent at 8,791, with the materials sector the drag as the iron ore and gold miners fell. The Australian dollar reclaimed US70.00 cents, up 0.3 per cent on the day and 1.2 per cent over five sessions, helped by copper's 1.9 per cent rise to US$13,977 a tonne. The local corporate calendar is quiet ahead of August reporting season: Yancoal reported a record June quarter, and Andrew Forrest lifted his stake in a Queensland tungsten producer. ASIC renewed its warning on Australians' private-credit exposure through superannuation.
The ASX 200 closed the prior session down 0.1 per cent at 8,791, with the broader market easing alongside it. Materials led the falls as BHP and Rio Tinto retreated and gold miners Northern Star and Evolution dropped more than 4 per cent, while the major banks firmed. The Australian dollar reclaimed US70.00 cents, up 0.3 per cent, and the 10-year Australian government bond yield edged down 1 basis point to 4.91 per cent as iron ore held at US$98.88 a tonne.
The S&P 500 eased 0.2 per cent to 7,443 and the Dow lost 0.6 per cent to 51,839, while the Nasdaq was flat at 25,508. Semiconductors stayed weak on the fallout from China's Kimi K3 model, though data-centre operator Iren surged about 20 per cent. Treasury yields rose, the 10-year up 6 basis points to 4.60 per cent, and the US dollar firmed to 100.96 on the DXY. Gold was steady at US$4,012 an ounce and Brent settled at US$88.92 a barrel.
European equities were mixed to lower. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.3 per cent to 640 and London's FTSE 100 dropped 0.7 per cent to 10,525, while Germany's DAX added 0.1 per cent to 24,847. UK assets were the focus: gilt yields rose to their highest since late May and sterling slipped after Andy Burnham became prime minister and said he would use any flexibility within the government's fiscal rules.
Chinese equities rallied as state-backed funds stepped in. The Hang Seng jumped 2.4 per cent to 25,143 and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.9 per cent to 3,796 after the national team bought about US$9bn of shares to steady the market. Japan's Nikkei 225, last at 64,141, remained 4.0 per cent lower over its most recent session, and the yen held near 162.47 per US dollar.
The gain came despite a firmer US dollar, with the DXY up 0.2 per cent to 100.96, and was helped by copper's 1.9 per cent rise to US$13,977 a tonne; the currency is 7.5 per cent higher over the past year.
30-day interbank futures continue to price no cut before 2027; the 10-year yield is 53 basis points higher than a year ago.
TD Securities said speculators are rebuilding long positions in copper on tight supply; the metal is up 13.7 per cent over the past year, and steady iron ore keeps the backdrop for the large local miners firm.
About 16 per cent of APRA-regulated super assets sit in private markets, roughly half of that offshore; ASIC reviewed 52 private credit funds in June and has made the sector an enforcement priority for 2026.
The AFR reported the projection as the state's debt burden climbs; the federal government last week rejected Victoria's request for a bailout.
The AFR reported the fund describing transaction taxes as large and lumpy and a drag on housing mobility.
The push comes as the government weighs east-coast gas policy and the Business Council presses for release of the reservation modelling.
At its June projections nine of 18 officials pencilled in at least one 2026 rate rise; the next FOMC meeting is on 28-29 July, and the US dollar index firmed 0.2 per cent to 100.96.
Iran's Houthi allies declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia and US average petrol prices returned to US$4 a gallon; WTI settled at US$82.42, and analysts warned prices could pass US$100 if Strait of Hormuz traffic slows.
The Hang Seng rose 2.4 per cent to 25,143 and the Shanghai Composite 0.9 per cent to 3,796; Goldman Sachs kept an overweight on China A-shares.
Burnham said he would keep the government's fiscal rules but use any flexibility within them; the FTSE 100 fell 0.7 per cent to 10,525.
Softer Canadian consumer prices added to the currency's decline as the US dollar index rose 0.2 per cent to 100.96.
The metal is up 19.6 per cent over the past year but little changed over the past five sessions.
The restriction adds to the list of critical-input controls Beijing has used as leverage in trade tensions.
Bitcoin is down 44.3 per cent and ether 49.3 per cent over the past 12 months.
Year-to-date attributable production of 19.8 million tonnes is 5 per cent ahead of 2025 and the average realised price rose to about A$160 a tonne, though higher diesel costs are pushing operating costs towards the upper half of the guidance range; the company ended the quarter with a A$2.01bn cash balance.
The purchase of about 862 million shares was worth roughly A$190m; EQ Resources shares rose about 25 per cent to 27 cents, drawing fresh attention to Western tungsten supply.
The raising was reported by the AFR's Street Talk as the latest offshore capital directed at local generation and storage assets.
The deal broadens the staffing group's footprint across government and enterprise contracts.
The transaction extends the US investor's push into Australian consumer-fitness franchising.
The AFR reported the hire as the bank rebuilds its debt-origination bench.
Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin found the deal likely breaches antitrust law; the companies had hoped to close as soon as 22 July, and a preliminary-injunction hearing is set for 3 August.
Average fares fell 6 per cent and unhedged jet fuel doubled to US$151 a barrel, while traffic rose 6 per cent to 61.3 million passengers; management guided second-quarter fares modestly lower and the shares fell about 7 per cent.
US same-store sales rose just 0.1 per cent, the weakest in more than a year, as order counts held up but ticket softened; the company named chief operating officer Joe Jordan to succeed Russell Weiner as chief executive in October.
Chief financial officer Atul Daga said India's consumption and investment held up through the West Asia energy shock, with attractive benchmark lending rates supporting housing affordability.
The largest cloud and AI companies have sold about US$159bn of bonds in the first five months of 2026 to fund data centres, and Morgan Stanley has taken a lead role in structuring the deals.
Adjusted earnings of US$0.14 a share beat expectations of a US$0.06 loss and US attendance rose 12 per cent on a strong summer box office; the shares jumped about 16 per cent premarket.
EBIT rose 19.1 per cent to CHF152.5m, but the shares fell about 5 per cent after management guided to slower second-half growth on tougher year-earlier comparisons.
A currency drag weighed on reported sales and North American demand stayed soft; the shares fell about 4 per cent.
Management flagged intensifying uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and its effect on raw-material prices, and a wait-and-see stance among customers, particularly in North America.
The probe centres on asset-disclosure practices at insurance arms controlled by Walter, whose investment group has expanded rapidly.
“We have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.”
“Q1 fares required stimulation as the Middle East conflict led to consumer hesitancy. Unhedged first-quarter jet fuel prices doubled to $151 a barrel.”
“Cheap, open-source AI could drive adoption, but that doesn't necessarily translate into AI-provider profitability.”
“The QSR industry in the US has been struggling with order counts during a difficult period of macroeconomic uncertainty. We believe this continued in Q2, where QSR order counts were flat.”
“The first quarter of fiscal 2027 reaffirmed that conviction emphatically, with a demand pipeline across infrastructure, housing and urban real estate as rich as it can be.”
“Paramount Skydance's takeover of Warner Bros Discovery likely violates antitrust law.”
For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.