Good morning. Wall Street closed higher overnight, led by technology. The S&P 500 rose 0.8 per cent to 7,544 and the Nasdaq 1.3 per cent to 26,207, with the Dow up 0.3 per cent to 52,487 and the VIX down 6.3 per cent to 15.84. Treasuries firmed, the 10-year yield down 3 basis points to 4.54 per cent, though still 12 basis points higher over the week. Brent crude fell 2.5 per cent to US$76.04 and WTI 2.3 per cent to US$71.81 even as the United States and Iran traded fresh airstrikes, and gold rose 1.5 per cent to US$4,133.
Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh named five task forces of outside experts, including Marc Andreessen and Doug McMillon, to review the central bank's operations from the balance sheet to artificial intelligence and forward guidance. The June minutes released this week showed officials divided, with some backing a rate rise; market-implied odds of a US hike this year sit near even. New York Fed president John Williams said he does not expect a sustained rise in energy prices. PepsiCo reported second-quarter results overnight and reaffirmed its full-year guidance, flagging a softer North American consumer.
The ASX 200 closed the prior session down 0.3 per cent at 8,762, a fourth day of losses in the mining sector, with the Australian dollar at US69.45 cents and the 10-year government bond yield up 6 basis points to 4.80 per cent. Local corporate attention centred on the aftermath of Telstra's national network outage and on UniSuper's decision to sit out the Firmus data-centre float. The domestic data calendar was quiet.
The ASX 200 closed the prior session down 0.3 per cent at 8,762, up 0.4 per cent over five days, with miners falling for a fourth straight day. Iron ore held at US$98.86 a tonne, up 0.9 per cent, while copper rose 3.2 per cent to US$13,773. The Australian dollar was at US69.45 cents and the 10-year government bond yield rose 6 basis points to 4.80 per cent, tracking a global back-up in yields.
The S&P 500 rose 0.8 per cent to 7,544 and the Nasdaq 1.3 per cent to 26,207 as technology led, while the Dow added 0.3 per cent to 52,487 and the VIX fell 6.3 per cent to 15.84. The 10-year Treasury yield eased 3 basis points to 4.54 per cent and the 2-year rose 2 basis points to 4.21 per cent. Brent fell 2.5 per cent to US$76.04 and gold rose 1.5 per cent to US$4,133, with equities shrugging off renewed US-Iran strikes.
The Stoxx 600 rose 0.8 per cent to 641 and Germany's DAX 0.9 per cent to 25,118, while the FTSE 100 slipped 0.2 per cent to 10,472. Reuters reported that a surge in energy profits is set to drive European blue-chip earnings growth in the second quarter, masking weaker underlying momentum across the wider market. Both the Stoxx 600 and DAX remain lower over five days.
Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.4 per cent to 67,744 and the Shanghai Composite 1.7 per cent to 4,037, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.7 per cent to 24,030. The yen was little changed at 162.35 per US dollar. The Hang Seng remains 4.2 per cent higher over five sessions even after the pullback.
The yield is 68 basis points higher over the past year, tracking a global back-up in rates; 30-day interbank futures continue to price no RBA cut before 2027.
FX Street noted the currency firmed as the US dollar softened; the DXY eased 0.1 per cent to 100.93.
Iron ore 62 per cent rose 0.9 per cent to US$98.86 a tonne and copper 3.2 per cent to US$13,773, while gold gained 1.5 per cent to US$4,133; the ASX mining sector fell for a fourth day.
The Australian Financial Review reported the group would support a well-designed reservation plan but wants Labor to rule out future taxes on the sector.
The Sydney Morning Herald reported futures pointed to a flat open for the ASX 200 on Friday.
The Australian Financial Review examined how the restriction reshapes property investment without forcing buyers to greenfield sites.
The Australian Financial Review reported the same pattern holds offshore, with employment yet to show a clear AI effect.
Ethereum was little changed, up 0.2 per cent to US$1,747 and down 37 per cent over the year.
Reuters reported the panels of outside economists and former central bankers, including Marc Andreessen and Doug McMillon, will cover the balance sheet, artificial intelligence and forward guidance.
The New York Times reported the split at Warsh's first meeting; market-implied odds of a US rate rise this year sit near even.
The 10-year is still 12 basis points higher over five sessions and 20 basis points higher over the past year.
New York Fed president John Williams said he does not expect a sustained rise in energy prices; Brent is still up 6.2 per cent over five sessions.
The Financial Times reported Ukrainian drone strikes have hammered Russian refineries, tightening global distillate supply.
FX Street, citing Nordea, reported that higher energy costs complicate the ECB's policy path; the euro was steady at US$1.1430.
FX Street reported falling oil weighed on the US dollar, supporting bullion; gold is up 24.8 per cent over the past year.
Reuters reported the government extended the measure, introduced in March amid the Iran war and higher oil prices.
Reuters reported the spikes exposed strains from overloaded transmission lines and booming data-centre demand.
The Financial Times reported the instrument is designed to cut the cost of the strategy that has been blamed for adding to market volatility.
The Financial Times reported the FCA's annual data showed abnormal trades hitting new highs amid a deal frenzy for UK companies.
The $150 billion fund's chief investment officer, John Pearce, told the Australian Financial Review he questioned whether the Nvidia-backed listing would get away, citing an information vacuum around the business.
SA police said they held no record of any deaths during the failure, while the ABC reported an expert estimate that the outage's economic cost could run into hundreds of millions of dollars, and that agencies had earlier warned Telstra of the vulnerability behind it.
The former Woolworths chief was recruited about a year ago; the Australian Financial Review reported the raising as the business reworks its balance sheet after the change at the top.
The OAG compilation, reported by the Guardian, measures the share of flights arriving within 15 minutes of schedule, and follows the carrier's stated strategy of fewer seats and higher fares as it renews its fleet.
The gold producer lodged the price-sensitive result and outlook directly with the ASX.
The lottery-software group's upgrade points to its offshore software-as-a-service business as the driver.
The withdrawal, filed with the ASX, removes the requisition that had sought to remove directors and call a shareholder meeting.
The price-sensitive filing flags a contested control situation now before the panel.
The contract win extends the engineering group's work in Victorian gas processing.
The company said the process supports its battery-anode material development in South Australia.
The result reflects the ramp-up of its restarted Broken Hill operations.
Improved recoveries feed into the definitive feasibility work on the South African platinum-group-metals project.
The refund adds to the biotech's cash position and was lodged as price-sensitive with the ASX.
The reshuffle was filed with the ASX as price-sensitive.
The program follows earlier results at the New South Wales project.
The float, flagged in Stockhead's resources wrap, would list the rare-earths interests as a separate vehicle.
First-half net revenue grew about 7 per cent and reported EPS 6 per cent, with strong international sales offset by a softer North American business as consumers pulled back in impulse channels.
The Financial Times reported the deal as a bright spot for private-equity portfolio sales, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure.
The Financial Times reported the change reflects insider-trading and compliance concerns as the platforms grow; Morgan Stanley is among other firms updating policies.
The Wall Street Journal reported the streamer is rethinking core strategies to compete with rivals and keep viewers engaged.
Grewal led the exchange's defence against the US securities regulator's landmark suit and its Washington policy campaign, Reuters reported.
Reuters reported the bank attributed the surge to buoyant equity markets and renewed corporate confidence, with the New York Times separately putting the AI-driven deal frenzy at about US$3.2 trillion so far.
The clearance lets the pair set up a local manufacturing company, Reuters reported.
Strong growth in the United States and Latin America boosted first-half earnings, Reuters reported.
The UK private-hospital operator gave the asset manager more time to make a formal offer, Reuters reported.
Co-chief executive Richard Teng said the milestone came about a month after the activity launched, Reuters reported.
Reuters reported the move could help manufacturers including Apple and Xiaomi.
Forecasts show the oil-linked lift masking weaker underlying momentum across the broader market, Reuters reported.
The Financial Times reported the hot weather weighed on trading across parts of the network.
The Financial Times reported the change follows heatwaves across the UK and western Europe.
“Despite the renewal of war in the Middle East, I am not looking for a sustained rise in energy prices over the remainder of the year.”
“In the US, we are seeing the consumer changing behaviours. Some channels, more the impulse channels, have been impacted, where there is more of a correlation with the price of gas.”
“We do expect some more pressure on the business from a commodity standpoint. The refund claims on the tariffs paid last year will be about 1 full point of EPS growth for the year.”
“The growth driving the AI boom is real, but so are the risks of an AI bubble.”
“Group EBITDA came in at $177 million, a strong performance in the context of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has reshaped global supply chains over the last four months.”
“There is too much we don't know.”
For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.