Starting Point
Thursday, 23 July 2026
as of 7:15am AEST
Markets at a glance
as of Thursday, 23 July 2026, 7:15am AEST
S&P 500
7,499
-0.1%
ASX 200
8,823
+0.3%
US 10y
4.66%
+3 bp
AUD/USD
0.6999
Brent
$93.88
+3.2%
Bitcoin
$65,905
-0.9%
Comment

Good morning. Wall Street closed little changed before the first of the big technology results: the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 7,499, the Nasdaq fell 0.6% and the Dow was flat. After the close, Alphabet reported quarterly revenue of US$96.4bn against a US$93.7bn consensus and lifted its 2026 capital spending guidance to US$195bn to US$205bn, citing AI demand, while Tesla earned an adjusted US$0.33 a share against the US$0.51 expected and recorded its first negative free cash flow in more than two years. Brent crude rose 3.2% to US$93.88 a barrel and traded above US$95 during the session, after an 11th consecutive night of US strikes on Iran and Secretary of State Marco Rubio's comment that Tehran does not seem serious about talks. The US 10-year yield rose 3 basis points to 4.66%, the 30-year extended its longest run above 5% since 2007, and gold rose 1.6% to US$4,135 an ounce.

Locally, the ASX 200 rose 0.3% to 8,823 even though nine of 11 sectors fell; gold, copper and energy producers did the lifting. Healthcare was the weakest corner after President Trump announced a 100% tariff on imported generic pharmaceuticals from August 2028, rising to 200% by 2029: CSL closed down 2.6% and Cochlear 4.6%. Wesfarmers and its partner SQM approved a $1.4bn expansion to double lithium output at Mount Holland, the Federal Court found Domino's misled franchisees over staff pay, and Origin Energy is investigating a potential customer data breach. Cotality's home value index shows the housing downturn broadening, with national values down about 0.9% over the month to 17 July and Sydney down 1.4%.

June labour force figures are due at 11:30am AEST, the European Central Bank's rate decision lands this evening, and Intel, Blackstone, Comcast and Union Pacific are among tonight's US reporters.

Markets by region
Australia

The ASX 200 rose 0.3% to 8,823 in the prior session, with nine of 11 sectors lower but gold, copper and energy producers lifting the index; Westgold rose 5.9% after beating its FY26 production guidance and Paladin Energy rose 5.6%. Healthcare fell after the US announced tariffs on imported generic pharmaceuticals, with CSL down 2.6% and Cochlear down 4.6%. The Australian dollar was steady at US69.99c and iron ore was little changed at US$98.65 a tonne.

United States

The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 7,499, the Nasdaq fell 0.6% to 25,691 and the Dow was flat at 52,219, with trading cautious before the Alphabet and Tesla results that landed after the close. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.66% and the 30-year extended its longest run above 5% since 2007. The US dollar index eased 0.1% to 101.13, Brent rose 3.2% to US$93.88 a barrel and gold rose 1.6% to US$4,135 an ounce.

Europe

The Stoxx 600 rose 0.6% to 647, the FTSE 100 rose 1.2% to 10,717 and the DAX rose 0.6% to 25,155. UK inflation slowed to 2.6% in June from 2.8% in May, below the 2.7% consensus and the lowest reading since March 2025; the Bank of England's base rate is 3.75% and its next decision is on 30 July. European gas prices approached their Iran-war highs on concern about winter supplies.

Asia

The Nikkei fell 0.2% to 66,116, the Hang Seng fell 1.0% to 24,893 and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.1% to 3,867. The yen traded at 163.07 to the US dollar, down 11.1% over 12 months, and the FT reported Tokyo has vowed 'bold' action against the slide. Commerzbank analysts see a mild depreciation bias in the yuan, reflecting China's growth shortfall.

Macro
Australia

Sydney values are about 3.7% below their January 2026 peak, national values fell 0.7% over the June quarter, the largest three-month decline since January 2023, and ABC News reported investors are retreating as the falls spread beyond the two biggest cities.

The fund is a wholesale property-debt vehicle; the report follows a year of heightened ASIC attention on private credit valuations and disclosure.

New RBA survey research published in its July Bulletin finds wide gaps in public understanding of monetary policy: about 50% of respondents correctly judged that higher interest rates slow activity and employment, while about 30% thought the opposite.

The article, drawing on three waves of a survey begun in 2025, reports inflation remains the public's top economic concern and trust in the RBA is stable, with higher trust associated with lower inflation expectations.

RBA Bulletin, July 2026

The column's premise is that gas exports are lightly taxed under current settings; the debate goes to the ALP conference this week.

The Australian dollar was flat at US69.99c, down 0.1% over five sessions but up 6.8% over 12 months.

The currency has held near US70c with the US dollar index at 101.13, up 3.8% over the year.

arcpoint markets data
The 10-year Commonwealth bond yield stands at 4.91%, up 53 basis points over 12 months, with the RBA cash rate at 4.35%.

The local 10-year trades about 25 basis points above the US 10-year at 4.66%.

arcpoint markets data
Iron ore was little changed at US$98.65 a tonne, down 0.1%, while copper eased 0.3% to US$14,310 after rising 3.1% over five sessions.

Iron ore is up 0.8% over 12 months against copper's 13.9%, a wide gap between the two industrial metals.

arcpoint markets data
Global

Brent is up 10.5% over five sessions and 36.9% over 12 months. A naval group reported Houthi missile and drone attacks on ships in the southern Red Sea, and Iran priced its August light crude for Asia at US$4.35 a barrel below the Oman/Dubai average.

The 10-year is up 11 basis points over five sessions and 32 basis points over 12 months; the Federal Reserve meets on 28-29 July.

UK inflation slowed to 2.6% in June from 2.8% in May, below the 2.7% consensus and the lowest reading since March 2025.

Food inflation eased to 1.7%, the lowest since August 2024. The Bank of England's base rate is 3.75%, its next decision is on 30 July, and the bank projects inflation a little under 3% in the third quarter on higher energy prices.

ONS

Separately, President Trump set out a 100% tariff on imported generic pharmaceuticals from August 2028, doubling to 200% by 2029, and the NYT detailed the new 50% tariffs on Canada.

The pact accompanies other US moves on energy supply during the Iran conflict; Reuters reported President Trump is set to expand a pledge on power costs for data centres.

USD/JPY is up 11.1% over 12 months, a larger move than the euro's 2.8% fall or the Australian dollar's 6.8% rise against the US dollar.

The rise extends the energy-price pressure the Bank of England expects to lift UK inflation to about 3% by the third quarter.

Gold rose 1.6% to US$4,135 an ounce and is up 20.2% over 12 months.

The rise came with the US dollar index down 0.1% at 101.13 on the day.

arcpoint markets data

China grew 4.3% in the June quarter, its slowest pace since late 2022 and below the 4.5% consensus.

The mine was one of the world's larger copper operations before its closure; copper trades at US$14,310 a tonne, up 13.9% over 12 months.

The VIX eased 2.4% to 16.64, though it is up 6.2% over five sessions.

Over 12 months the index is up 0.8%, leaving equity volatility close to where it stood a year ago despite the oil rise.

arcpoint markets data
Companies
Australia

The project is to double annual spodumene production to 760,000 tonnes and add an ore-sorting facility; Wesfarmers shares closed down about 1%.

Stockhead reported CSL's plasma exports are likely unaffected because plasma products are not generics, and Cochlear implants are potentially exempt under the Nairobi Protocol; healthcare was the session's weakest sector.

The Sydney Morning Herald reported the company, Australia's largest energy retailer, is probing a potential leak of customer information.

Production of neodymium-praseodymium missed the company's forecast by about 15%, and the output shortfall outweighed the revenue growth.

The stock led the ASX gold producers higher, with gold at US$4,135 an ounce, up 20.2% over 12 months.

Justice Bernard Murphy found the company directed franchisees to pay delivery drivers and in-store workers under enterprise agreements when some were covered by the Fast Food Industry Award; compensation will be decided at a later hearing.

The SMH reported the company is pressing the AI firms it calls 'byte burglars' over unlicensed use of its content.

The rise came in the same session Peninsula Energy withdrew its calendar-2026 guidance, leaving the uranium reporters sharply split.

The Sydney Morning Herald reported the company is still setting out FY27 growth plans for the US mine on strong uranium grades.

The company is targeting more than 500,000 ounces of annual gold production by 2029-30.

Stockhead reported the consumer lender's book crossed the milestone in its latest update.

The Sydney Morning Herald reported the agreement gives the diagnostics developer access to Healius's national pathology network.

Small Caps reported the IT services group held its profit guidance while flagging the revenue shortfall.

Small Caps reported the advanced-manufacturing group's quarterly receipts were its strongest on record.

The approval, disclosed in a price-sensitive ASX filing, clears a regulatory condition for the scheme to proceed.

The grant, disclosed in a price-sensitive ASX filing, clears a permitting step for the project's development.

Street Talk reported the private equity firm is also readying a new fund of about $500m.

The commitment is to a fund backed by the family behind the Costa horticulture business.

ABC News reported the French-owned processor will wind down the Gippsland site over the period to 2027.

Global

Google Cloud revenue rose to US$13.6bn from US$10.4bn a year earlier and quarterly capex was US$44.9bn; the FT reported the company went through nearly US$6bn of cash in the quarter. Chief executive Sundar Pichai said the company is 'leading at the frontier of AI and shipping at an incredible pace'.

Free cash flow was negative US$1.1bn, the first quarterly outflow in more than two years, after US$1.44bn of inflow in the first quarter; capital spending rose 142% to US$5.8bn on the company's AI, Optimus and Cybercab programs.

Infrastructure revenue fell 7% and consulting was flat; chief executive Arvind Krishna said clients are redirecting spending toward hardware at the expense of software and consulting budgets.

Moody's grew second-quarter revenue 15% and adjusted earnings 31% to US$4.68 a share, and raised the midpoint of its full-year earnings guidance to US$16.75.

Ratings transaction revenue rose 34% and the agency rated more than US$2tn of debt for a second consecutive quarter; the adjusted operating margin widened 440 basis points to 55.3%.

Moody's Q2 2026 earnings call
GE Vernova's equipment orders more than doubled in the second quarter and services orders rose 15%, taking total backlog to US$176bn, up US$13bn on the prior quarter.

The company booked US$2.7bn of data-centre orders in its electrification segment, taking the first half above US$5bn, more than double all of 2025; it expects backlog to reach US$200bn in 2027.

GE Vernova Q2 2026 earnings call
AT&T added more than 1 million advanced-connectivity subscribers across fibre, fixed wireless and postpaid phones, its best second quarter on record for fibre net additions.

Service revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings all grew faster than in the first quarter, and the company plans to reach 8 million new fibre locations this year, its largest build.

AT&T Q2 2026 earnings call
Santander reported a record quarterly profit of EUR3.8bn, taking the first half of 2026 to the bank's best on record.

Underlying return on tangible equity reached 15.6% with a CET1 ratio of 14%; the quarter is the first to include TSB after that acquisition closed on 30 April.

Santander first-half 2026 results presentation

The claim adds to US pressure on the company after its Kimi K3 release last week intensified questions about returns on AI infrastructure spending.

The FT reported the unit is valued at about EUR5bn in the talks; no deal has been announced.

Priority review compresses the agency's standard decision timeline; Reuters reported the designation on Wednesday.

The judge's scepticism bears on whether the consolidated cases proceed to trial.

The rail operator credited intermodal demand for the growth.

CNBC reported passengers are effectively covering the higher fuel costs through fares, while the September-quarter outlook fell short of consensus.

Texas Instruments posted higher second-quarter profit and revenue, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The WSJ reported sales growth lifted both lines in the quarter.

WSJ
Alaska Air Group reported a second-quarter GAAP net loss of US$76m and an adjusted net loss of US$102m.

The loss comes with US airline fuel costs rising; Southwest flagged the same pressure in its September-quarter outlook.

Alaska Air Group Q2 2026 earnings call

The equipment hirer announced the record quarter and the guidance lift in its results release, and separately declared its quarterly dividend.

Digital bank Revolut was valued at US$115bn, a level the Wall Street Journal said makes it Europe's most valuable start-up.

The WSJ reported the valuation in its coverage of the company's latest investor round.

WSJ

The listing adds to a run of SPAC deals this month, including a planned US$4bn data-centre listing reported by the WSJ.

The FT reported the exposure arises from the bill's treatment of Chinese components and software in the carmaker's models.

Quotes of the day
Macro

“Inflation is a choice.”

Kevin Warsh, chair, US Federal Reserve
recent public remarks, via CNBC
Inflation

“Food prices fell this month, driven by products including chocolate, margarine and beef.”

Grant Fitzner, chief economist, UK Office for National Statistics
June CPI release
Geopolitics

“The US would love to reach a diplomatic settlement. [But the Iranians] don't seem to be serious about making a deal.”

Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State
ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting, via CNBC
AI / supply chain

“AI is becoming one of the largest capital formation stories in the global economy. It's creating financing needs that extend well beyond data centers into power and infrastructure and other sectors.”

Rob Fauber, chief executive, Moody's
Moody's Q2 2026 earnings call
Industry outlook

“The long-cycle electric power industry is in the early stages of a multi-decade growth opportunity.”

Scott Strazik, chief executive, GE Vernova
GE Vernova Q2 2026 earnings call
Consumer

“We gained more than 1 million Advanced Connectivity subscribers from fiber, fixed wireless, and postpaid phones ... This was our best ever second quarter for AT&T Fiber net adds.”

John Stankey, chairman and chief executive, AT&T
AT&T Q2 2026 earnings call
Markets in detail
as of Thursday, 23 July 2026, 7:15am AEST · levels at each market's last close
Level As of 1d 5d 12mo
Equities
S&P 500 7,499 22 Jul -0.1% -1.0% +18.8%
Nasdaq 25,691 22 Jul -0.6% -2.2% +23.0%
ASX 200 (prior) 8,823 22 Jul +0.3% -0.2% +1.7%
Stoxx 600 647 22 Jul +0.6% +0.7% +18.8%
Nikkei 225 66,116 22 Jul -0.2% -2.4% +66.2%
Hang Seng 24,893 22 Jul -1.0% +0.9% -0.9%
Dow Jones 52,219 22 Jul -0.8% +17.3%
FTSE 100 10,717 22 Jul +1.2% +1.9% +18.8%
DAX 25,155 22 Jul +0.6% +0.6% +4.6%
Shanghai Comp 3,867 22 Jul +0.1% -2.2% +8.0%
VIX 16.64 22 Jul -2.4% +6.2% +0.8%
Rates
US 10y 4.66% 22 Jul +3 bp +11 bp +32 bp
US 2y 4.26% 21 Jul +5 bp +8 bp +41 bp
ACGB 10y 4.91% 15 Jul -1 bp +2 bp +53 bp
RBA cash 4.35% 21 Jul +50 bp
FX
AUD/USD 0.6999 22 Jul -0.1% +6.8%
DXY 101.13 22 Jul -0.1% +0.6% +3.8%
USD/JPY 163.07 22 Jul -0.1% +0.6% +11.1%
EUR/USD 1.1412 22 Jul +0.1% -0.5% -2.8%
Commodities
Brent $93.88 22 Jul +3.2% +10.5% +36.9%
WTI $86.48 22 Jul +1.8% +8.6% +30.6%
Gold $4,135 22 Jul +1.6% +2.3% +20.2%
Iron ore 62% $98.65 21 Jul -0.1% -0.3% +0.8%
Copper $14,310 22 Jul -0.3% +3.1% +13.9%
Crypto
Bitcoin $65,905 22 Jul -0.9% +3.1% -45.1%
Ethereum $1,928 22 Jul +4.7% -48.6%
Calendar
Australia June labour force survey at 11:30am AEST: employment change, the full-time and part-time split, participation and the unemployment rate. S&P Global flash manufacturing and services PMIs for July are also due.
United States Weekly initial jobless claims (week to 18 July) and the Chicago Fed national activity index for June, both 10:30pm AEST. The European Central Bank's rate decision is due this evening AEST.
Earnings Intel, T-Mobile, Honeywell, Blackstone, Comcast, Union Pacific, Nasdaq, Newmont, Dow and American Airlines report in the US.
Seasoned judgement. Active navigation.
Subscribe  ·  Archive
For wholesale clients only

For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.