ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures price about a 75 per cent chance of a hold at that meeting, and carry no cut before 2027, so the risk the market is pricing over the next year is a further increase. The June-quarter consumer price index, due at 11.30am AEST on Wednesday, is the release that decides the August meeting.

Australia imports the large majority of its refined petroleum products, so a disruption at the Strait of Hormuz reaches domestic pump prices and supply directly. The warning was published on the same day crude gave back its July gains.

The heavy vehicle road user charge carries the same 16 cent reduction over the same period. Letting the concession lapse restores about 16 cents a litre to pump prices from August, which would land in the September-quarter consumer price index and not in Wednesday's June-quarter print.

The Section 301 tariffs took effect this month on more than 80 trading partners including Australia, at rates of 10 to 12.5 per cent, covering 99.4 per cent of United States imports.

That puts Brent below where it traded on 17 July, before Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea pushed it above US$100 on 24 July. President Trump said there is a good chance of a deal and that strikes would resume if the talks fail, so the pause is conditional and the supply risk has not been removed.

Pricing had run hard the other way while crude was rising. CME FedWatch put the chance of a 25 basis point increase at this meeting at about 36 per cent on 23 July, from 16 per cent a week earlier, and a September increase at about 82 per cent, from below 53 per cent. The target range is 3.50 to 3.75 per cent and this meeting carries no updated economic projections.

MAS said the increase is smaller than April's, and that core inflation is projected to step up from July and remain elevated, moderating discernibly only from around mid-2027. Singapore sets monetary policy through the exchange rate and not through an interest rate, and is acting ahead of imported energy costs reaching consumers.

Excluding transport, orders rose 0.6 per cent against a 0.9 per cent consensus, and excluding defence they rose 0.3 per cent. Computers and electronic products rose 3.1 per cent, a gain in nine of the past ten months.

Five-year credit default swap spreads on Oracle, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft have widened to around 75 basis points, the highest in at least seven years. The hyperscalers have been funding data-centre construction in the investment-grade bond market, which is where much of that spending now sits for credit investors.

Beijing did not specify what form the countermeasures would take. The statement landed on the same day two separate advances in Chinese semiconductor capability were reported, in memory manufacturing and in lithography equipment.

Carnaby holders receive 0.0682 Evolution shares for each share held, an implied $0.77 a share and a 60.4 per cent premium to Carnaby's $0.48 close. Evolution shares rose 2.0 per cent to $11.51 in Monday's session and Carnaby rose about 61 per cent. Carnaby's board has recommended the offer.

The assets are 30-34 and 36 Hickson Road in Sydney and 123 Albert Street in Brisbane. Settlement is expected in October 2026 subject to Foreign Investment Review Board approval, with 67 per cent of proceeds paid at settlement and 33 per cent deferred for 30 months at a 6.25 per cent annual coupon. Dexus expects pro forma look-through gearing to fall by about two percentage points on settlement.

A pre-feasibility study puts Mt Gibson at 260,000 ounces a year by its third year of production. The company also outlined a longer-dated aspiration it calls Range 500, to lift group output to 500,000 ounces a year, subject to further drilling, studies and capital decisions. The shares rose 14.5 per cent in Monday's session.

The listed investment company attributed the 6.3 percentage point shortfall mainly to first-half positioning, an underweight in materials alongside overweights in healthcare and technology. The final dividend is unchanged at 14.5 cents fully franked, with a 2.5 cent special dividend, taking FY26 dividends to 31.5 cents, the same as FY25.

ASM International fell 7.1 per cent and BE Semiconductor 9.7 per cent alongside ASML in European trade, and the Stoxx 600 technology index closed 1.7 per cent lower. Immersion DUV is the workhorse machine for mature and mid-range chip nodes, a step below the extreme ultraviolet systems ASML sells for leading-edge production.

It lifted full-year revenue guidance to about US$6.3 billion at the midpoint from US$6.18 billion, and adjusted earnings guidance to about US$8.10 a share. Billings were US$1.73 billion, up 31.5 per cent, and the operating margin was 28.4 per cent against 19 per cent a year earlier. The result landed after the close, so the shares had not traded on it in the regular session.

Fashion and leather goods, the division that houses Louis Vuitton and Dior, returned to organic growth in the second quarter at 1 per cent, to 9.01 billion euros, after falling 1 per cent across the half. Group net profit was 5.7 billion euros. LVMH sells across the United States, Europe, Japan and China, so the half reads as a gauge of high-income discretionary spending in each.

The 49 yuan close, against an 8.66 yuan issue price, values CXMT at about 3.3 trillion yuan, above Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's 2.6 trillion yuan. CXMT held 7.67 per cent of the global DRAM market last year, fourth behind Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron, and says most of the proceeds go to mass-producing memory wafers.

Separately, the Financial Times reported on Monday that Nvidia will invest US$5 billion in Safe Superintelligence, the artificial-intelligence company founded by former OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever.

The company cited a harder market in China and the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. First-half revenue was 29.17 billion euros against 32.57 billion a year earlier, on lower volumes in China and the United States.

United States revenue fell 14.3 per cent to US$2.04 billion after Washington removed the de minimis duty-free exemption, with goods of Chinese origin now facing tariffs of 10 to 87.5 per cent. Full-year 2025 revenue was US$41.8 billion, with net income down 38.7 per cent to US$2.06 billion.

The two have co-invested before, on the acquisition of Press Ganey in 2019 and a stake sale in Convergint Technologies in 2021. No terms have been reported and neither firm has confirmed a deal.