Starting Point
Friday, 26 June 2026
as of 7:15am AEST
Markets at a glance
as of Friday, 26 June 2026, 7:15am AEST
S&P 500
7,357
ASX 200
8,808
+0.2%
US 10y
4.41%
-9 bp
AUD/USD
0.6914
+0.2%
Brent
$75.00
+1.7%
Bitcoin
$59,511
-2.4%
Comment

Good morning. United States shares ended little changed, with the S&P 500 flat at 7,357 and the Nasdaq down 0.5% to 25,359 as technology gave back ground. Treasuries rallied, the 10-year yield falling 9 basis points to 4.41% and the 2-year 5 basis points to 4.11%. Oil rose after Iran struck a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz, halting a plan to move stranded vessels through the waterway, and Brent gained 1.7% to US$75.00. Copper jumped 3.2% to US$13,515 a tonne and gold added 1.3% to US$4,042.

The cost of the artificial-intelligence build-out is reaching consumers. Apple raised prices on its Macs and iPads by about 20%, blaming a shortage of memory and storage chips that the data-centre boom has made scarce, and Microsoft lifted Xbox console prices by up to US$150 for the same reason. Both followed Micron's record quarterly result, where memory demand from AI servers drove the gains. The Federal Reserve's hawkish turn at its June meeting still frames the rates picture: futures now imply a greater chance of a rate rise in September than they did a week ago, and New York Fed president John Williams said policy is well placed to return inflation to 2%.

Locally, the ASX 200 closed the prior session up 0.2% at 8,808. Worley cut its 2026 earnings guidance, citing up to $60 million of lost underlying earnings from Middle East project delays, and its shares fell about 10%. May employment rose 40,300, more than expected, though the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4% on gains weighted to part-time work. The Australian dollar traded at US69.14 cents and iron ore held at US$100.52 a tonne.

Macro
Australia
May employment rose 40,300, ahead of expectations of about 30,000, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4%.

The gains were weighted to part-time roles, underemployment ticked higher and total hours worked fell; household spending rebounded 1.3% in May after a 1.1% fall in April.

ABS
The RBA cash rate is held at 4.35%, with markets pricing steady policy through 2026 and the chance of cuts not before 2027.

The RBA's May projections have headline inflation peaking near 4.8% in the June quarter and trimmed mean around 3.9%, lifted in part by higher fuel prices.

RBA
The Australian dollar traded at US69.14 cents, up 0.2% on the day but down 1.4% over five sessions.

The 10-year government bond yield eased 6 basis points to 4.78% and iron ore held at US$100.52 a tonne.

arcpoint markets data
Global
United States Treasuries rallied, the 10-year yield falling 9 basis points to 4.41% and the 2-year 5 basis points to 4.11%.

Futures now imply a greater chance of a Fed rate rise in September than a week ago, after the hawkish shift at the June meeting.

arcpoint markets data

The closely watched measure ticked higher, keeping the Fed's caution about price pressures in view.

Brent rose 1.7% to US$75.00, copper 3.2% to US$13,515 a tonne and gold 1.3% to US$4,042; the United Nations shipping agency paused its evacuation effort.

Companies
Australia
Worley cut its 2026 earnings guidance, citing up to $60 million of lost underlying earnings from Middle East project delays.

That is roughly double the $30 million to $40 million flagged in April, with a further estimated $50 million translation impact from a stronger Australian dollar in the second half; the company said no contracts had been cancelled and the shares fell about 10%.

Worley ASX announcement
The large diversified miners were supported by a 3.2% rise in copper to US$13,515 a tonne, while iron ore held at US$100.52.

BHP and Rio Tinto are the most exposed local names to the copper move; copper is up 24.8% over the past year and iron ore 6.2%.

arcpoint markets data
Local energy producers are leveraged to a renewed lift in oil after Iran struck a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent rose 1.7% to US$75.00, though it remains down 5.7% over five sessions; Woodside and Santos track the oil price closely.

arcpoint markets data
Australia's major banks face APRA's 2026 stress test, which models a severe global disruption driven by heightened geopolitical instability.

APRA has said domestic private-credit risks remain contained at about $200 billion, roughly 3% of the size of the banking system; the RBA cash rate is held at 4.35%.

APRA
Global

The MacBook Air now starts at US$1,299, up from US$1,099; chief executive Tim Cook said the increases had become unavoidable as the AI data-centre build-out lifted component costs, and the shares fell.

The move follows Apple's price rises and points to AI-driven component costs spreading across consumer electronics.

FT reported the print prompted a reshuffle across technology stocks; memory pricing is now feeding into the cost of consumer devices.

Marianne Lake, who ran consumer and community banking and was seen as a leading contender, will retire after more than 25 years; Dimon expects to stay about three more years, and the shares rose.

The decision adds to the legal pressure on European oil majors over their contribution to climate change.

Quotes of the day
Macro

“The current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to restore inflation to 2 per cent. I expect inflation readings to edge down in the coming quarters, although substantial risks remain.”

John Williams, New York Fed president
WSJ
Inflation

“We've missed on inflation for five years, and we're going to fix that.”

Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve chair
Federal Reserve, June FOMC
AI / supply chain

“Rising component costs, supply constraints, geopolitical uncertainty, and a once-in-a-generation AI build-out are challenging businesses to move faster and with more precision.”

Patrick Zammit, TD SYNNEX chief executive
TD SYNNEX Q2 FY2026 earnings call
Consumer

“This quarter has been a difficult quarter for Western Europe. We saw a deterioration in consumer confidence across several of our key markets.”

Daniel Ervér, H&M chief executive
H&M Q2 2026 earnings call
Industry outlook

“We are now at a gross margin of 54.1% on a rolling 12-month basis, which puts us in the range of what we have called a more normalised gross margin of 54 to 55 per cent.”

Adam Karlsson, H&M chief financial officer
H&M Q2 2026 earnings call
Geopolitics

“Any passage outside the designated framework will not be covered by safe-passage guarantees, and the consequences rest with the vessel's owner, operator and commander.”

Persian Gulf Strait Authority, Iran
NYT
Markets in detail
as of Friday, 26 June 2026, 7:15am AEST · levels at each market's last close
Level As of 1d 5d 12mo
Equities
S&P 500 7,357 25 Jun -0.8% +20.8%
Nasdaq 25,359 25 Jun -0.5% -2.5% +27.0%
ASX 200 (prior) 8,808 24 Jun +0.2% -1.8% +3.0%
Stoxx 600 640 25 Jun +0.8% +0.5% +19.2%
Nikkei 225 69,175 24 Jun -0.9% -1.0% +78.3%
Hang Seng 23,412 24 Jun +0.3% -4.4% -3.2%
Rates
US 10y 4.41% 24 Jun -9 bp -2 bp +11 bp
US 2y 4.11% 24 Jun -5 bp +6 bp +36 bp
ACGB 10y 4.78% 17 Jun -6 bp -12 bp +52 bp
RBA cash 4.35% 24 Jun +50 bp
FX
AUD/USD 0.6914 25 Jun +0.2% -1.4% +6.0%
DXY 101.43 25 Jun -0.2% +1.3% +3.8%
USD/JPY 161.73 25 Jun +0.3% +11.6%
EUR/USD 1.1375 25 Jun +0.2% -0.7% -2.6%
Commodities
Brent $75.00 25 Jun +1.7% -5.7% +10.8%
WTI $71.47 25 Jun +1.6% -6.9% +10.1%
Gold $4,042 25 Jun +1.3% -7.3% +21.5%
Iron ore 62% $100.52 24 Jun -1.1% +6.2%
Copper $13,515 25 Jun +3.2% -5.4% +24.8%
Crypto
Bitcoin $59,511 25 Jun -2.4% -7.4% -44.6%
Ethereum $1,562 25 Jun -3.6% -10.2% -35.4%
Calendar
Australia No major scheduled releases after this week's May labour force data. CFTC Australian dollar positioning is due about 5:30am AEST Saturday.
United States May advance goods trade balance and wholesale and retail inventories at about 10:30pm AEST; Fed's Neel Kashkari speaks at about 1:30am AEST.
Earnings A light global calendar. The week's main reporters, Micron, H&M and TD SYNNEX, have already published.
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For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.