Good morning. Wall Street closed higher overnight after the United States Treasury moved to steady the long end of the bond market, announcing larger buyback operations in 10 to 30-year debt. Long yields fell, the US dollar fell with them, and gold and the major cryptocurrencies rallied. The support came from the government's own debt manager rather than from the Federal Reserve, which hours earlier published minutes showing officials leaning the other way.
Those minutes, from the 28-29 July meeting, recorded that many participants thought further tightening would be needed if inflation did not come down, and three regional presidents had already voted for a rise. Investors traded the buyback and set the minutes aside. Treasury figures published the same week showed federal debt passing US$40 trillion for the first time.
Locally, the ASX 200 fell for a sixth straight session on Wednesday, with technology the weakest sector after WiseTech Global disclosed that the competition regulator had executed a search warrant on it. June-quarter wage figures landed the same morning and showed pay growth slowing again. The July labour force report is out at 11.30am.
The ASX 200 finished yesterday's session at 9,054, down 0.2 per cent and lower for a sixth straight day, taking the five-session fall to 1.7 per cent. Health care led the sectors, up 2.6 per cent, while technology fell 3.2 per cent, real estate 1.1 per cent and financials 0.6 per cent; energy rose 0.8 per cent. The 10-year Australian government bond yield was 5.01 per cent, down 1 basis point, and iron ore was US$95.28 a tonne. The Australian dollar rose 0.6 per cent to US71.24 cents.
The S&P 500 closed overnight at 7,708, up 0.2 per cent, with the Nasdaq up 0.2 per cent at 26,331 and the Dow Jones up 0.2 per cent at 53,463. Health care did the lifting, after Merck and Moderna released late-stage trial results for their melanoma vaccine. The VIX fell 6.0 per cent to 14.89. Over five sessions the S&P 500 is still down 0.5 per cent and the Nasdaq 1.0 per cent.
The Stoxx 600 closed overnight at 651, down 0.1 per cent, with the DAX down 0.1 per cent at 26,091 and the FTSE 100 up 0.1 per cent at 10,743. Banks and semiconductor shares were the weakest parts of the market, holding the index down even as long-dated yields fell late in the session. The euro rose 0.9 per cent against the US dollar to US$1.1681.
At yesterday's Asian close, the Nikkei 225 finished at 65,326, down 3.2 per cent and its weakest close since 4 August, as semiconductor and AI-linked shares were sold. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield touched 2.945 per cent, its highest in about 30 years. The Shanghai Composite fell 2.4 per cent to 3,894, with the CSI Robot index down more than 6 per cent and semiconductor stocks down about 7 per cent, while the Hang Seng edged up 0.1 per cent to 25,495.
Private sector wages grew 3.1 per cent over the year, from 3.4 per cent a year earlier, and public sector wages 3.4 per cent, from 3.7 per cent, the sixth straight quarter in which public pay has outgrown private. Headline inflation was 3.8 per cent over the year to June on the ABS monthly indicator, so wages went backwards in real terms. Annual wage growth is below the late-2023 peak of 4.3 per cent and above the 2.2 per cent recorded in the December quarter of 2019.
Australian government securities on issue stood at $977.7 billion on 17 July, on Australian Office of Financial Management figures. The AOFM publishes the outstanding stock weekly, covering nominal bonds, indexed bonds and Treasury notes.
The four states raised most of that debt when the Reserve Bank cash rate was 0.10 per cent, the setting held from November 2020 to May 2022. The cash rate is 4.35 per cent today, and semi-government borrowers price off a 10-year Commonwealth curve 77 basis points higher than a year ago.
The facility lets each central bank supply its own currency to the other's financial system, supporting trade and investment settled in Australian dollars and renminbi. It has been in place since 2012 and is renewed at five-year intervals.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.65 per cent and the 30-year fell about 9 basis points to 5.196 per cent, having set a 19-year high earlier in the week. The US dollar index fell 0.9 per cent to 98.80, gold rose 4.9 per cent to US$4,581 an ounce and the Mexican peso reached a two-year high. Treasury said the increase reflects its desire to provide greater liquidity support where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants.
Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari and Dallas's Lorie Logan each dissented in favour of a quarter-point increase, and the minutes noted some participants thought financial conditions might not be restrictive enough to return inflation to 2 per cent. Chairman Kevin Warsh also raised cutting the meeting schedule from eight a year to six from 2027; no decision was taken and the 2026 schedule is unchanged.
The total has more than doubled since 2017. The Financial Times reported the increase has come at a historically fast rate, and the New York Times attributed the recent acceleration to spending on the Iran war, tax cuts and tariff refunds.
A 13 per cent rise in the Ofgem energy price cap drove it: gas prices rose 14.7 per cent, the largest increase since October 2022, and electricity 3.6 per cent. Housing and household services inflation rose to 4.1 per cent from 2.7 per cent, while food inflation fell to 1.3 per cent. Chancellor John Healey said the Iran war continues to affect prices in the United Kingdom.
The SEC proposal creates two offering exemptions: a startup exemption for raisings up to US$5 million over four years, and a fundraising exemption of up to US$75 million a year. SEC chairman Paul Atkins and CFTC chairman Mike Selig were among the officials attending, alongside representatives of Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken and Gemini.
Diesel in California has reached US$7 a gallon, up about 30 US cents over the past month and US$1.89 on a year ago, with Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and the Hormuz disruption dislocating global supply, CNBC reported.
The shares fell 9.8 per cent to $39.12 on the day. WiseTech said the warrant forms part of an investigation into alleged contraventions of competition and consumer law and that it intends to co-operate fully. The ACCC accepted a court-enforceable undertaking from WiseTech in January to divest Expedient, the logistics software business it picked up in its takeover of e2open.
Underlying EBITDA rose 44 per cent to $3.171 billion on an achieved gold price 40 per cent higher at $6,023 an ounce, even though gold output fell 5 per cent to 715,000 ounces and copper output 14 per cent to 66,000 tonnes. The board lifted its dividend policy target to 60 per cent of group cash flow from 50 per cent. FY27 guidance is 660,000 to 730,000 ounces of gold and all-in sustaining costs of $1,795 to $1,995 an ounce, against $1,717 in FY26.
Adjusted EBITDA rose to $767 million from $595 million, while earnings per share fell to 1.3 cents from 12.4 cents. The board declared an interim dividend of 7.0 cents a share fully franked, totalling $92 million, with a 3 September record date and 18 September payment. The result was lodged after the market closed, so the shares have not yet traded on it; Yancoal briefs investors and analysts at 11am on Thursday.
Jackpot turnover fell 21 per cent, with no $100 million Powerball draw for the first time since FY21, yet EBITDA before significant items fell only 1.8 per cent to $736.1 million as Keno revenue rose 3.0 per cent. The full-year dividend was held at 16.5 cents fully franked, and the company pointed to the 40-year extension of its Victorian lottery licence as lengthening the duration of its earnings base.
Moderna shares rose about 177 per cent on Wednesday and Merck more than 12 per cent. The combination extended the time patients lived without the cancer returning, against Keytruda alone, and reduced the risk of it spreading to distant sites. The companies describe it as the first positive Phase 3 result for an individualised neoantigen therapy and for any mRNA-based cancer treatment.
OpenAI filed its listing prospectus confidentially with regulators in June and raised US$122 billion in March. Friar said Anthropic has also filed confidentially and could remove the cover on that filing in the coming weeks, with a listing as early as September.
The company lifted full-year earnings guidance to US$5.31 to US$5.36 a share from US$5.08 to US$5.15, and full-year pre-tax margin guidance to 12.3 to 12.4 per cent from 11.9 to 12.0 per cent. Third-quarter guidance of US$1.30 to US$1.32 came in under the US$1.35 expected, and the shares fell as much as 6 per cent in early trade before paring the fall. TJX said sales in its international division, which covers Europe and Australia, rose 7 per cent on a comparable basis.
The listing raised 6.1 billion yuan, about US$904 million, and was oversubscribed more than 8,000 times, a record for the STAR market. The debut came on a session in which the Shanghai Composite fell and mainland robotics and semiconductor stocks were sold heavily.
OpenRouter last raised capital in May 2026 at a US$1.3 billion valuation, so the price marks the business up roughly six times in three months. It has raised US$164 million in total and takes a cut of the inference spend it routes.
The creditor group put in a further US$40 million of funding. The transaction ends the ownership of Hackman Capital Partners and Affinius Capital, which bought MBS from Carlyle for US$650 million in 2019. MBS supplies more than 600 sound stages, including Silvercup Studios in New York and Television City in Los Angeles.
“Many participants assessed that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline.”
“The decline in the share of jobs with larger wage rises has contributed to slower wage growth overall.”
“Advancing this regulatory framework is a key element in our strategy to advance the rule books for the modern era and another step by the commission to onshore innovation in crypto asset markets for generations to come.”
“The IPO is not a finish line, it is a milestone, another fundraise. We raised $122 billion in March, and that gives us flexibility.”
“We are confident that consumers will continue to look for value in the current environment.”
“At current prices, our operating mine cash flow would be around $3.6 billion, which is $200 million higher than FY26, even allowing for cost escalation in FY27.”
For wholesale clients only. Prepared by Arc Point OCIO Pty Ltd (ACN 693 569 765), Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1319046) of Capella Advisory (AFSL 550125), for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth); it is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, retail clients. This note is factual market reporting and general information, with any arcpoint view clearly labelled as such. It is not personal advice and does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED, RBA, company filings.